DegenPredicts — Premier League

Matchweek 7 · 10 fixtures · updated 2026-09-09 · break-even 51.28%
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This model does not beat the market's number. Out of sample it errs by 1.305 goals against the market's 1.295, over 5 seasons. It landed 50.1% of handicaps (± 1.19 on 1779 matches). That is the expected result against a closing Asian handicap, not a bug — the numbers below are published so the evidence accumulates, not because they are edges.

1X2 probabilities: log loss 0.9604 against the de-vigged market's 0.9598 (-0.0006 — worse). Draws predicted at 23.1% against an actual 23.9%.

Published numbers sit 0% of the way from the market to the model — the rest is the market, because that is what the backtest says it is worth.

The board

Sun 13 Sep · 16:30 early season live price
Man UnitedvMan City
local derby · Man United in Europe · Man City in Europe
34%
22%
44%
Likeliest score 1-1 (8.8%) Supremacy -0.25 · Goals 3.69 · BTTS 71%
Asian handicap pass
Man City -0.25
market -0.25 · we differ -0.14
win 43.9% · push 11.1%
1.93 · EV -0.0417 · stake 0.0u
Total goals pass
Under 3
market 3.79 · we differ -0.51
win 28.8% · push 20.9%
2.04 · EV -0.2032 · stake 0.0u
1X2 best value +EV
Man United
ours 33.9% · market 30.7%
3.15 · EV 0.0683 · stake 0.4u
Sat 12 Sep · 15:00 early season live price
BournemouthvBrentford
Bournemouth in Europe
38%
23%
38%
Likeliest score 1-1 (9.6%) Supremacy +0.00 · Goals 3.50 · BTTS 69%
Asian handicap pass +EV
Brentford -0.00
market -0.00 · we differ +0.16
win 38.5% · push 23.0%
2.04 · EV 0.0154 · stake 0.24u
Total goals pass
Under 3
market 3.59 · we differ -0.47
win 32.1% · push 21.6%
1.88 · EV -0.1803 · stake 0.0u
1X2 best value +EV
Brentford
ours 38.5% · market 35.6%
2.72 · EV 0.0468 · stake 0.34u
Sat 12 Sep · 15:00 early season live price
ChelseavHull
Hull newly promoted · Hull in Europe
78%
14%
8%
Likeliest score 2-0 (9.5%) Supremacy +2.00 · Goals 3.79 · BTTS 56%
Asian handicap pass
Hull +2.00
market +2.00 · we differ -0.30
win 41.4% · push 20.8%
1.87 · EV -0.017 · stake 0.0u
Total goals pass
Over 3.25
market 3.78 · we differ +0.03
win 52.4%
1.85 · EV -0.0307 · stake 0.0u
1X2 best value +EV
Hull
ours 8.4% · market 5.8%
14.39 · EV 0.2112 · stake 0.2u
Mon 14 Sep · 20:00 early season live price
LeedsvNewcastle
42%
27%
30%
Likeliest score 1-1 (13.0%) Supremacy +0.25 · Goals 2.58 · BTTS 53%
Asian handicap pass
Newcastle +0.25
market +0.25 · we differ -0.24
win 44.1% · push 13.6%
1.81 · EV -0.0648 · stake 0.0u
Total goals pass
Over 2.75
market 2.57 · we differ +0.04
win 47.6%
2.04 · EV -0.0279 · stake 0.0u
1X2 best value +EV
Leeds
ours 42.2% · market 40.0%
2.43 · EV 0.0262 · stake 0.23u
Sat 12 Sep · 15:00 early season live price
LiverpoolvFulham
Liverpool in Europe
65%
19%
16%
Likeliest score 2-1 (9.5%) Supremacy +1.25 · Goals 3.57 · BTTS 63%
Asian handicap pass
Fulham +1.25
market +1.25 · we differ +0.11
win 46.1% · push 10.8%
1.93 · EV -0.0017 · stake 0.0u
Total goals pass
Under 3.25
market 3.62 · we differ -0.24
win 52.2%
1.9 · EV -0.0081 · stake 0.0u
1X2 best value +EV
Fulham
ours 16.5% · market 13.9%
6.65 · EV 0.0961 · stake 0.21u
Sun 13 Sep · 14:00 early season live price
CoventryvBrighton
Coventry newly promoted · Coventry in Europe
26%
26%
48%
Likeliest score 1-1 (12.4%) Supremacy -0.50 · Goals 2.66 · BTTS 53%
Asian handicap pass
Brighton -0.50
market -0.50 · we differ -0.20
win 48.4%
1.89 · EV -0.0844 · stake 0.0u
Total goals pass
Over 2.75
market 2.63 · we differ +0.15
win 49.5%
1.99 · EV -0.0139 · stake 0.0u
1X2 best value +EV
Coventry
ours 25.5% · market 23.1%
4.12 · EV 0.0497 · stake 0.2u
Sat 12 Sep · 20:00 early season live price
SunderlandvArsenal
Arsenal in Europe · 383 km trip
17%
23%
60%
Likeliest score 0-1 (11.5%) Supremacy -1.00 · Goals 2.76 · BTTS 50%
Asian handicap pass
Arsenal -1.00
market -1.00 · we differ +0.15
win 36.0% · push 24.5%
1.86 · EV -0.0853 · stake 0.0u
Total goals pass
Under 2.25
market 2.79 · we differ -0.19
win 48.0%
2.06 · EV -0.0112 · stake 0.0u
1X2 best value +EV
Sunderland
ours 16.6% · market 12.9%
7.18 · EV 0.195 · stake 0.39u
Sat 12 Sep · 15:00 early season live price
Crystal PalacevIpswich
Ipswich newly promoted · Ipswich in Europe
48%
27%
25%
Likeliest score 1-1 (12.7%) Supremacy +0.50 · Goals 2.55 · BTTS 51%
Asian handicap pass +EV
Ipswich +0.50
market +0.50 · we differ +0.15
win 51.6%
2.0 · EV 0.033 · stake 0.41u
Total goals pass
Under 2.75
market 2.57 · we differ -0.10
win 53.2%
1.85 · EV -0.0161 · stake 0.0u
1X2 best value +EV
Draw
ours 26.7% · market 24.4%
3.92 · EV 0.0463 · stake 0.2u
Sat 12 Sep · 17:30 early season live price
TottenhamvEverton
48%
26%
26%
Likeliest score 1-1 (12.4%) Supremacy +0.50 · Goals 2.68 · BTTS 53%
Asian handicap pass
Everton +0.50
market +0.50 · we differ -0.08
win 51.5%
1.84 · EV -0.0518 · stake 0.0u
Total goals pass
Over 2.5
market 2.66 · we differ +0.08
win 50.1%
1.95 · EV -0.0231 · stake 0.0u
1X2 best value +EV
Tottenham
ours 48.5% · market 47.0%
2.07 · EV 0.0032 · stake 0.04u
Sat 12 Sep · 15:00 early season live price
Aston VillavNott'm Forest
Aston Villa in Europe
42%
27%
30%
Likeliest score 1-1 (13.0%) Supremacy +0.25 · Goals 2.58 · BTTS 52%
Asian handicap pass
Nott'm Forest +0.25
market +0.25 · we differ -0.19
win 44.1% · push 13.6%
1.95 · EV -0.0029 · stake 0.0u
Total goals pass
Under 2.5
market 2.59 · we differ -0.09
win 52.4%
1.87 · EV -0.0197 · stake 0.0u
1X2 best value no value
Nott'm Forest
ours 30.5% · market 29.6%
3.26 · EV -0.0058 · stake 0.0u

Backtest — cover rate by how far we disagree

Disagreement (goals)Handicap nCovervs break-even Totals nCovervs break-even
0-0.15 858 47.2% -2.39 s.e. — — —
0.15-0.3 543 52.1% 0.39 s.e. — — —
0.3-0.5 267 52.4% 0.38 s.e. — — —
0.5-0.75 87 56.3% 0.95 s.e. — — —

Out of sample across 1900 matches, seasons 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Break-even is 51.28%. Because several segments were examined, a bucket needs |z| ≥ 3.04 — not 2.0 — before it means anything. no segment survives correction for the number of looks taken.

Are the probabilities honest?

We saidOutcomesPredictedActual
0.00-0.101807.1% 5.6%
0.10-0.2092115.9% 14.8%
0.20-0.30221725.1% 25.4%
0.30-0.4070034.5% 33.7%
0.40-0.5075945.6% 44.7%
0.50-0.6548057.5% 59.2%
0.65-1.0144372.5% 74.9%

Every home, draw and away probability from the out-of-sample backtest, bucketed. A well-calibrated model has these two columns matching — which is a different and more basic question than whether it beats the price.

How to read this. The coloured bar is our probability of a home win, draw and away win — read off one scoreline distribution, so the three markets below it cannot contradict each other. A pick is flagged play only when the model disagrees with the market by more than 0.6 goals on the handicap or 0.7 on the total; those thresholds sit deliberately above every bucket the backtest could prove, so most matches show pass. Every match is still predicted, graded and CLV-tracked whether or not it is staked.