DegenPredicts — Premier League

Matchweek 14 · 20 fixtures · updated 2026-10-31 · break-even 51.28%
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This model does not beat the market's number. Out of sample it errs by 1.306 goals against the market's 1.295, over 5 seasons. It landed 50.2% of handicaps (± 1.19 on 1779 matches). That is the expected result against a closing Asian handicap, not a bug — the numbers below are published so the evidence accumulates, not because they are edges.

1X2 probabilities: log loss 0.9604 against the de-vigged market's 0.9598 (-0.0006 — worse). Draws predicted at 23.1% against an actual 23.9%.

Published numbers sit 0% of the way from the market to the model — the rest is the market, because that is what the backtest says it is worth.

The board

Sat 7 Nov · 15:00 early season live price
ArsenalvHull
Hull newly promoted · Arsenal in Europe · Hull in Europe
70%
18%
12%
Likeliest score 2-0 (10.7%) Supremacy +1.50 · Goals 3.29 · BTTS 54%
Asian handicap thin +EV
Hull +1.50
market +1.50 · we differ +0.92
win 52.0%
2.3 · EV 0.1959 · stake Noneu
Total goals pass
Over 3.5
market 3.22 · we differ +0.32
win 41.7%
2.3 · EV -0.0414 · stake Noneu
1X2 best value +EV
Hull
ours 11.9% · market 5.7%
14.0 · EV 0.6683 · stake Noneu
Sat 7 Nov · 12:30 early season live price
LeedsvTottenham
48%
26%
25%
Likeliest score 1-1 (12.5%) Supremacy +0.50 · Goals 2.63 · BTTS 52%
Asian handicap thin
Tottenham +0.50
market +0.50 · we differ -0.90
win 51.6%
1.4878048780487805 · EV -0.2327 · stake Noneu
Total goals pass
Under 2.5
market 2.65 · we differ -0.09
win 51.0%
1.8695652173913042 · EV -0.0462 · stake Noneu
1X2 best value +EV
Leeds
ours 48.4% · market 37.4%
2.55 · EV 0.2349 · stake Noneu
Sat 7 Nov · 17:30 early season live price
Nott'm ForestvMan City
Man City in Europe
27%
24%
49%
Likeliest score 1-1 (10.9%) Supremacy -0.50 · Goals 3.12 · BTTS 62%
Asian handicap thin
Man City -0.50
market -0.50 · we differ -0.65
win 48.8%
1.606060606060606 · EV -0.2165 · stake Noneu
Total goals pass
Over 2.5
market 3.06 · we differ +0.31
win 60.3%
1.606060606060606 · EV -0.032 · stake Noneu
1X2 best value +EV
Nott'm Forest
ours 27.4% · market 19.4%
4.7 · EV 0.2866 · stake Noneu
Sat 31 Oct · 15:00 early season live price
BrentfordvNott'm Forest
49%
25%
26%
Likeliest score 1-1 (11.7%) Supremacy +0.50 · Goals 2.88 · BTTS 57%
Asian handicap pass
Nott'm Forest +0.50
market +0.50 · we differ -0.54
win 51.4%
1.7142857142857144 · EV -0.1193 · stake Noneu
Total goals pass
Under 2.5
market 2.92 · we differ -0.21
win 45.1%
2.15 · EV -0.0312 · stake Noneu
1X2 best value +EV
Brentford
ours 48.6% · market 45.9%
2.1 · EV 0.0211 · stake Noneu
Sun 8 Nov · 16:30 early season live price
Man UnitedvAston Villa
Man United in Europe · Aston Villa in Europe
49%
24%
27%
Likeliest score 1-1 (11.2%) Supremacy +0.50 · Goals 3.04 · BTTS 60%
Asian handicap pass
Aston Villa +0.50
market +0.50 · we differ -0.51
win 51.3%
1.6666666666666665 · EV -0.1456 · stake Noneu
Total goals pass
Under 2.5
market 3.12 · we differ -0.40
win 41.3%
2.3 · EV -0.0497 · stake Noneu
1X2 best value +EV
Man United
ours 48.7% · market 45.1%
2.1 · EV 0.0235 · stake Noneu
Sun 8 Nov · 14:00 early season live price
Crystal PalacevLiverpool
Liverpool in Europe
28%
24%
49%
Likeliest score 1-1 (10.8%) Supremacy -0.50 · Goals 3.15 · BTTS 62%
Asian handicap pass
Liverpool -0.50
market -0.50 · we differ -0.48
win 48.8%
1.6451612903225805 · EV -0.1971 · stake Noneu
Total goals pass
Over 2.5
market 3.13 · we differ +0.09
win 61.0%
1.5714285714285714 · EV -0.0421 · stake Noneu
1X2 best value +EV
Crystal Palace
ours 27.5% · market 20.5%
4.5 · EV 0.2371 · stake Noneu
Sat 31 Oct · 17:30 early season live price
TottenhamvCrystal Palace
49%
25%
27%
Likeliest score 1-1 (11.5%) Supremacy +0.50 · Goals 2.94 · BTTS 58%
Asian handicap pass +EV
Crystal Palace +0.50
market +0.50 · we differ -0.42
win 51.3%
2.2 · EV 0.1293 · stake Noneu
Total goals pass
Over 2.5
market 2.92 · we differ +0.09
win 56.3%
1.7142857142857144 · EV -0.0345 · stake Noneu
1X2 best value +EV
Crystal Palace
ours 26.7% · market 19.0%
4.9 · EV 0.308 · stake Noneu
Mon 2 Nov · 20:00 early season live price
NewcastlevEverton
49%
25%
27%
Likeliest score 1-1 (11.7%) Supremacy +0.50 · Goals 2.91 · BTTS 58%
Asian handicap pass
Everton +0.50
market +0.50 · we differ -0.40
win 51.3%
1.5882352941176472 · EV -0.1844 · stake Noneu
Total goals pass
Under 2.5
market 2.94 · we differ -0.17
win 44.4%
2.15 · EV -0.0452 · stake Noneu
1X2 best value +EV
Newcastle
ours 48.6% · market 41.8%
2.3 · EV 0.1188 · stake Noneu
Sat 31 Oct · 12:30 early season live price
ChelseavMan United
Man United in Europe
49%
24%
27%
Likeliest score 1-1 (11.1%) Supremacy +0.50 · Goals 3.06 · BTTS 60%
Asian handicap pass
Man United +0.50
market +0.50 · we differ -0.36
win 51.2%
1.6451612903225805 · EV -0.1569 · stake Noneu
Total goals pass
Under 2.5
market 3.10 · we differ -0.18
win 40.9%
2.35 · EV -0.0383 · stake Noneu
1X2 best value +EV
Chelsea
ours 48.8% · market 42.9%
2.25 · EV 0.0969 · stake Noneu
Sat 7 Nov · 15:00 early season live price
FulhamvNewcastle
400 km trip
49%
25%
26%
Likeliest score 1-1 (11.7%) Supremacy +0.50 · Goals 2.90 · BTTS 58%
Asian handicap pass
Newcastle +0.50
market +0.50 · we differ -0.34
win 51.4%
1.625 · EV -0.1654 · stake Noneu
Total goals pass
Under 2.5
market 2.96 · we differ -0.29
win 44.6%
2.15 · EV -0.0407 · stake Noneu
1X2 best value +EV
Fulham
ours 48.6% · market 43.4%
2.2 · EV 0.07 · stake Noneu
Sat 31 Oct · 20:00 early season live price
Aston VillavFulham
Aston Villa in Europe
49%
25%
26%
Likeliest score 1-1 (12.0%) Supremacy +0.50 · Goals 2.81 · BTTS 56%
Asian handicap pass
Fulham +0.50
market +0.50 · we differ -0.34
win 51.4%
1.6896551724137931 · EV -0.1311 · stake Noneu
Total goals pass
Under 2.5
market 2.83 · we differ -0.10
win 46.6%
2.05 · EV -0.044 · stake Noneu
1X2 best value +EV
Aston Villa
ours 48.6% · market 44.7%
2.15 · EV 0.0444 · stake Noneu
Sun 1 Nov · 16:30 early season live price
LiverpoolvArsenal
Liverpool in Europe · Arsenal in Europe
26%
26%
48%
Likeliest score 1-1 (12.4%) Supremacy -0.50 · Goals 2.65 · BTTS 53%
Asian handicap pass +EV
Arsenal -0.50
market -0.50 · we differ -0.06
win 48.4%
2.3 · EV 0.1142 · stake Noneu
Total goals pass
Under 2.5
market 2.72 · we differ -0.34
win 50.5%
1.9523809523809523 · EV -0.0136 · stake Noneu
1X2 best value +EV
Arsenal
ours 48.4% · market 39.9%
2.4 · EV 0.1627 · stake Noneu
Fri 6 Nov · 20:00 early season live price
EvertonvCoventry
Coventry newly promoted · Coventry in Europe
49%
25%
26%
Likeliest score 1-1 (11.7%) Supremacy +0.50 · Goals 2.88 · BTTS 57%
Asian handicap pass +EV
Coventry +0.50
market +0.50 · we differ -0.15
win 51.4%
2.1 · EV 0.0788 · stake Noneu
Total goals pass
Over 2.5
market 2.87 · we differ +0.05
win 55.0%
1.7142857142857144 · EV -0.057 · stake Noneu
1X2 best value +EV
Coventry
ours 26.5% · market 20.4%
4.5 · EV 0.1909 · stake Noneu
Sun 8 Nov · 14:00 early season live price
SunderlandvChelsea
389 km trip
26%
25%
49%
Likeliest score 1-1 (12.0%) Supremacy -0.50 · Goals 2.80 · BTTS 56%
Asian handicap pass
Chelsea -0.50
market -0.50 · we differ +0.13
win 48.6%
2.0 · EV -0.0287 · stake Noneu
Total goals pass
Under 2.5
market 2.81 · we differ -0.04
win 46.9%
2.0 · EV -0.0611 · stake Noneu
1X2 best value +EV
Chelsea
ours 48.6% · market 45.6%
2.1 · EV 0.0199 · stake Noneu
Sat 31 Oct · 15:00 early season live price
HullvIpswich
Hull newly promoted · Ipswich newly promoted · Hull in Europe · Ipswich in Europe
26%
26%
48%
Likeliest score 1-1 (12.4%) Supremacy -0.50 · Goals 2.66 · BTTS 53%
Asian handicap pass +EV
Ipswich -0.50
market -0.50 · we differ -0.13
win 48.4%
2.25 · EV 0.09 · stake Noneu
Total goals pass
Under 2.5
market 2.67 · we differ -0.09
win 50.4%
1.9090909090909092 · EV -0.0369 · stake Noneu
1X2 best value +EV
Ipswich
ours 48.4% · market 40.1%
2.4 · EV 0.1627 · stake Noneu
Sat 31 Oct · 15:00 early season live price
Man CityvBrighton
Man City in Europe
49%
23%
28%
Likeliest score 1-1 (10.3%) Supremacy +0.50 · Goals 3.27 · BTTS 64%
Asian handicap pass +EV
Brighton +0.50
market +0.50 · we differ -0.06
win 51.1%
2.05 · EV 0.0481 · stake Noneu
Total goals pass
Over 3.5
market 3.25 · we differ +0.07
win 41.3%
2.3 · EV -0.0506 · stake Noneu
1X2 best value +EV
Brighton
ours 27.9% · market 21.9%
4.3 · EV 0.2001 · stake Noneu
Sat 31 Oct · 15:00 early season live price
CoventryvSunderland
Coventry newly promoted · Coventry in Europe
26%
26%
48%
Likeliest score 1-1 (12.2%) Supremacy -0.50 · Goals 2.75 · BTTS 55%
Asian handicap pass +EV
Sunderland -0.50
market -0.50 · we differ -0.00
win 48.5%
2.3 · EV 0.116 · stake Noneu
Total goals pass
Over 2.5
market 2.74 · we differ +0.02
win 51.8%
1.8333333333333335 · EV -0.0507 · stake Noneu
1X2 best value +EV
Sunderland
ours 48.5% · market 39.3%
2.45 · EV 0.1888 · stake Noneu
Sun 8 Nov · 14:00 early season live price
IpswichvBournemouth
Ipswich newly promoted · Ipswich in Europe · Bournemouth in Europe
27%
24%
49%
Likeliest score 1-1 (11.5%) Supremacy -0.50 · Goals 2.96 · BTTS 59%
Asian handicap pass
Bournemouth -0.50
market -0.50 · we differ -0.41
win 48.7%
1.8333333333333335 · EV -0.1075 · stake Noneu
Total goals pass
Over 2.5
market 2.96 · we differ +0.03
win 56.9%
1.6666666666666665 · EV -0.0522 · stake Noneu
1X2 best value no value
Ipswich
ours 26.8% · market 25.4%
3.7 · EV -0.0088 · stake Noneu
Sat 31 Oct · 15:00 early season live price
BournemouthvLeeds
Bournemouth in Europe
48%
26%
26%
Likeliest score 1-1 (12.3%) Supremacy +0.50 · Goals 2.71 · BTTS 54%
Asian handicap pass
Leeds +0.50
market +0.50 · we differ -0.32
win 51.5%
1.7407407407407407 · EV -0.1034 · stake Noneu
Total goals pass
Under 2.5
market 2.74 · we differ -0.14
win 49.0%
1.9523809523809523 · EV -0.0429 · stake Noneu
1X2 best value no value
Bournemouth
ours 48.5% · market 47.0%
2.05 · EV -0.0058 · stake Noneu
Sun 8 Nov · 14:00 early season live price
BrightonvBrentford
49%
24%
27%
Likeliest score 1-1 (11.0%) Supremacy +0.50 · Goals 3.08 · BTTS 61%
Asian handicap pass
Brentford +0.50
market +0.50 · we differ -0.05
win 51.2%
1.8333333333333335 · EV -0.0607 · stake Noneu
Total goals pass
Under 2.5
market 3.13 · we differ -0.23
win 40.4%
2.35 · EV -0.0496 · stake Noneu
1X2 best value no value
Brentford
ours 27.3% · market 25.4%
3.65 · EV -0.0053 · stake Noneu

Backtest — cover rate by how far we disagree

Disagreement (goals)Handicap nCovervs break-even Totals nCovervs break-even
0-0.15 852 47.8% -2.05 s.e. — — —
0.15-0.3 541 51.2% -0.04 s.e. — — —
0.3-0.5 272 53.3% 0.67 s.e. — — —
0.5-0.75 90 55.6% 0.82 s.e. — — —

Out of sample across 1900 matches, seasons 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025. Break-even is 51.28%. Because several segments were examined, a bucket needs |z| ≥ 3.04 — not 2.0 — before it means anything. no segment survives correction for the number of looks taken.

Are the probabilities honest?

We saidOutcomesPredictedActual
0.00-0.101807.1% 5.6%
0.10-0.2092015.9% 14.7%
0.20-0.30221725.1% 25.4%
0.30-0.4070134.5% 33.7%
0.40-0.5075945.6% 44.7%
0.50-0.6548057.5% 59.2%
0.65-1.0144372.5% 74.9%

Every home, draw and away probability from the out-of-sample backtest, bucketed. A well-calibrated model has these two columns matching — which is a different and more basic question than whether it beats the price.

How to read this. The coloured bar is our probability of a home win, draw and away win — read off one scoreline distribution, so the three markets below it cannot contradict each other. A pick is flagged play only when the model disagrees with the market by more than 0.6 goals on the handicap or 0.7 on the total; those thresholds sit deliberately above every bucket the backtest could prove, so most matches show pass. Every match is still predicted, graded and CLV-tracked whether or not it is staked.
Hit rate