Week 8 picks
The side the model thinks is likelier on every spread and total. NFL lines are sharp, so these
are leans, not locks: across 1,660
games from 2020–2025 the model's side hit
51.1% on spreads and
50.9% on totals.
Sun Nov 01, 1:00 PM
ARIatDAL
Projected score DAL 30 – ARI 24
Spread
1.6 pts off
ARI +7
Model: DAL by 5.4
Total
0.4 pts off
Under 54.5
Model total 54.1
Sun Nov 01, 1:00 PM
ATLatTB
Projected score ATL 22 – TB 22
divisional
Spread
2.7 pts off
ATL +2.5
Model: ATL by 0.2
Total
0.9 pts off
Over 43.5
Model total 44.4
Sun Nov 01, 1:00 PM
BALatBUF
Projected score BUF 28 – BAL 26
new BAL QB (Lamar Jackson) · BUF +7 days rest
Spread
0.6 pts off
BAL +3
Model: BUF by 2.4
Total
0.2 pts off
Under 54.5
Model total 54.3
Sun Nov 01, 1:00 PM
CLEatPIT
Projected score PIT 23 – CLE 17
divisional
Spread
2.4 pts off
PIT -3.5
Model: PIT by 5.9
Total
1.8 pts off
Over 38.5
Model total 40.3
Sun Nov 01, 1:00 PM
INDatJAX
Projected score JAX 28 – IND 18
JAX +7 days rest · divisional
Spread
0.1 pts off
IND +10
Model: JAX by 9.9
Total
0.2 pts off
Over 46.5
Model total 46.7
Sun Nov 01, 1:00 PM
LVatNYJ
Projected score LV 23 – NYJ 23
LV crosses 3 time zones · 3,584 km trip
Spread
1.9 pts off
LV +1.5
Model: LV by 0.4
Total
0.6 pts off
Over 45.5
Model total 46.1
Sun Nov 01, 1:00 PM
MINatDET
Projected score DET 23 – MIN 20
divisional
Spread
0.3 pts off
DET -3
Model: DET by 3.3
Total
3.1 pts off
Under 46.5
Model total 43.4
Sun Nov 01, 1:00 PM
TENatCIN
Projected score CIN 30 – TEN 15
Spread
2.5 pts off
CIN -12.5
Model: CIN by 15.0
Total
1.3 pts off
Under 46.5
Model total 45.2
Sun Nov 01, 4:05 PM
LACatLA
Projected score LA 26 – LAC 18
LAC +7 days rest
Spread
1.0 pts off
LA -6.5
Model: LA by 7.5
Total
1.6 pts off
Under 45.5
Model total 43.9
Sun Nov 01, 4:25 PM
KCatDEN
Projected score DEN 20 – KC 19
divisional
Spread
2.8 pts off
DEN +1.5
Model: DEN by 1.3
Total
2.1 pts off
Under 40.5
Model total 38.4
Sun Nov 01, 4:25 PM
NEatMIA
Projected score NE 26 – MIA 18
NE +3 days rest · divisional
Spread
1.6 pts off
NE -7
Model: NE by 8.6
Total
0.2 pts off
Over 43.5
Model total 43.7
Sun Nov 01, 8:20 PM
PHIatWAS
Projected score WAS 24 – PHI 19
WAS +7 days rest · divisional
Spread
1.0 pts off
PHI +6
Model: WAS by 5.0
Total
3.1 pts off
Over 40.5
Model total 43.6
Mon Nov 02, 8:15 PM
CHIatSEA
Projected score SEA 27 – CHI 22
CHI +3 days rest · CHI crosses 2 time zones
Spread
1.7 pts off
SEA -3
Model: SEA by 4.7
Total
2.1 pts off
Over 46.5
Model total 48.6
Thu Nov 05, 8:15 PM
JAXatBAL
Projected score BAL 25 – JAX 21
new BAL QB (Lamar Jackson)
Spread
0.6 pts off
BAL -3
Model: BAL by 3.6
Total
2.9 pts off
Under 48.5
Model total 45.6
Projected score is the model's own number before it is compared with the line. Pts off is how far the model sits from the line toward the pick: under a point is close to a coin flip, and in past seasons the bigger gaps have hit at best in the mid 50s. The amber line flags what the model weights and the line alone doesn't show: quarterback changes, rest mismatches, long trips, wind.
Record this season
Spreads
45-58-5
43.7%
Totals
49-59
45.4%
Week 8
1-0
· 1-0
spreads · totals
Every game is picked and every pick is graded.
Week 8 results
| Game | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| CAR at GB GB 27 – CAR 19 |
GB -3.5win | Under 46.5win |
Week by week
| Week | Spreads | Totals |
|---|---|---|
| Week 8 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Week 7 | 3-11 | 6-8 |
| Week 6 | 5-9 | 6-8 |
| Week 5 | 8-6-1 | 6-9 |
| Week 4 | 7-7-2 | 6-10 |
| Week 3 | 6-9-1 | 8-8 |
| Week 2 | 10-6 | 10-6 |
| Week 1 | 5-10-1 | 6-10 |
Model output, not advice. NFL spread and total markets are the most efficient in sports —
every game is nationally televised, heavily bet and priced by people with better data than
this. A pick on every game means a lot of near coin flips, and at standard −110 pricing
a 51% hit rate still loses money over a season. Bet only what you can afford to lose.