DegenPredicts

The honest backtest. With nothing fitted on the seasons it scores (2023–2025, priced at the noon lines this board bets into), every positive-EV puck-line side returned +5.8% on 767 bets (±3.19), positive in 3 of 3 seasons, and the staking rule +12.5% on 153. Suggestive, not proven: a slice needs |z| ≥ 2.86 to survive the number of looks taken. Closing-line value is what will settle it.

Against closing moneylines the model tied the market (log-loss difference under 0.0001); against noon prices it was better by 0.0006. On totals the market was as good as the model (log loss 0.6925 against 0.6926), so the published total sits 30% of the way from the market to the model and almost never clears the bar. The full walk-forward reads higher — +14.5% on 379 — because its late-game model and shrinks were fitted on overlapping seasons; the number above is the one to trust.

Goalies. From recent starts alone the model names the right starter 65.0% of the time. Knowing the real one sharpens its ratings-only forecast (moneyline log loss 0.0003 better) but barely moves the market-aware one against closing lines (+0.0001): the books price the starter too. So the board takes the starter from the day's news and does not stake a pick until both are confirmed or likely — it is never betting blind into goalie news.

Season

Puck line (all games)

+0.00u

124-92 · 57.4% vs 54.2% priced

Totals (all games)

+0.00u

97-113-6 · 46.2% vs 50.4% priced

Puck line CLV

-0.005

goals the market moved against us

Totals CLV

+0.018

goals the market moved our way

Every game is predicted and graded whether or not it is staked. A hit rate means little on its own in hockey — a +1.5 underdog covers about 70% of the time at a price that says so — so each record is shown beside the rate its prices implied.

The board

Sat Oct 31, 10:10 PM play best EV +6.4%

CGYatCOL

CGY on a back-to-back · COL +2 days rest

In net: CGY Sergeev confirmed backup · COL Blackwood confirmed

COL 65%

OT 18%

CGY 17%

Win incl. OT COL 76.8% · market 77.2% Goals 6.57 · market 6.55 · margin +1.77

Puck line bold

CGY +1.5+138

ours 44.7% · market 40.5% · EV +6.4% · 0.58u

Hit 0.0% (0-1) this season at EV 6%+

Total no play

Over 6.5-112

ours 50.9% · market 50.5% · EV -3.9%

Hit 45.6% (36-43) this season when we're under 0.03 goals off the market

Sun Nov 1, 8:00 PM best EV +0.6%

OTTatANA

OTT on a back-to-back · ANA +2 days rest

In net: OTT Ersson projected backup · ANA Brossoit confirmed backup

ANA 39%

OT 22%

OTT 39%

Win incl. OT ANA 50.6% · market 48.4% Goals 6.69 · market 6.76 · margin +0.03

Puck line no play

ANA +1.5-233

ours 70.3% · market 67.0% · EV +0.6%

Hit 35.3% (6-11) this season at EV 0–2%

Total no play

Under 6.5+110

ours 46.8% · market 45.7% · EV -1.7%

Hit 47.7% (21-23) this season when we're 0.06–0.10 goals off the market

Sat Oct 31, 4:00 PM best EV -1.7%

OTTatSJS

In net: OTT Ersson confirmed backup · SJS Nedeljkovic confirmed

SJS 33%

OT 22%

OTT 45%

Win incl. OT SJS 43.5% · market 41.7% Goals 6.52 · market 6.52 · margin -0.41

Puck line no play

SJS +1.5-192

ours 64.6% · market 63.1% · EV -1.7%

Hit 59.4% (117-80) this season at EV below 0%

Total no play

Over 6.5-112

ours 50.5% · market 50.4% · EV -4.4%

Hit 45.6% (36-43) this season when we're under 0.03 goals off the market

Sat Oct 31, 2:00 PM best EV -1.8%

TBLatNSH

In net: TBL Vasilevskiy projected · NSH Saros projected

NSH 29%

OT 22%

TBL 49%

Win incl. OT NSH 39.3% · market 39.6% Goals 6.21 · market 6.19 · margin -0.66

Puck line no play

TBL -1.5+154

ours 38.7% · market 37.8% · EV -1.8%

Hit 59.4% (117-80) this season at EV below 0%

Total no play

Over 6.5+114

ours 45.2% · market 44.9% · EV -3.3%

Hit 45.6% (36-43) this season when we're under 0.03 goals off the market

Sat Oct 31, 1:00 PM best EV -2.3%

CHIatBOS

In net: CHI Knight projected · BOS Swayman projected

BOS 54%

OT 21%

CHI 25%

Win incl. OT BOS 66.7% · market 66.4% Goals 6.15 · market 6.16 · margin +1.02

Puck line no play

CHI +1.5-135

ours 56.1% · market 55.1% · EV -2.3%

Hit 59.4% (117-80) this season at EV below 0%

Total no play

Under 5.5+114

ours 44.9% · market 44.9% · EV -3.8%

Hit 45.6% (36-43) this season when we're under 0.03 goals off the market

Sun Nov 1, 1:00 PM best EV -2.3%

WPGatCAR

WPG 3rd game in 4 nights

In net: WPG Daws projected · CAR Kochetkov projected

CAR 58%

OT 20%

WPG 22%

Win incl. OT CAR 70.8% · market 70.6% Goals 6.27 · market 6.23 · margin +1.30

Puck line no play

WPG +1.5-115

ours 51.8% · market 50.8% · EV -3.1%

Hit 59.4% (117-80) this season at EV below 0%

Total no play

Over 6-114

ours 51.8% · market 51.0% · EV -2.3%

Hit 44.9% (35-43) this season when we're 0.03–0.06 goals off the market

Sun Nov 1, 3:30 PM best EV -2.4%

MINatWSH

In net: MIN Wallstedt confirmed · WSH Thompson projected

WSH 38%

OT 22%

MIN 40%

Win incl. OT WSH 49.4% · market 50.1% Goals 6.26 · market 6.22 · margin -0.04

Puck line no play

MIN +1.5-278

ours 71.1% · market 70.2% · EV -3.4%

Hit 59.4% (117-80) this season at EV below 0%

Total no play

Over 6-112

ours 51.5% · market 50.7% · EV -2.4%

Hit 44.9% (35-43) this season when we're 0.03–0.06 goals off the market

Sun Nov 1, 6:00 PM best EV -2.5%

EDMatNYR

EDM on a back-to-back · NYR +5 days rest

In net: EDM Tomkins confirmed · NYR Garand projected

NYR 42%

OT 22%

EDM 36%

Win incl. OT NYR 54.0% · market 53.5% Goals 6.46 · market 6.50 · margin +0.24

Puck line no play

EDM +1.5-230

ours 67.1% · market 66.8% · EV -3.7%

Hit 59.4% (117-80) this season at EV below 0%

Total no play

Under 6.5-108

ours 50.5% · market 49.8% · EV -2.5%

Hit 44.9% (35-43) this season when we're 0.03–0.06 goals off the market

Sat Oct 31, 2:00 PM best EV -2.6%

EDMatNYI

EDM 3,274 km trip · EDM 2 time zones

In net: EDM Jarry confirmed · NYI Sorokin projected

NYI 36%

OT 22%

EDM 42%

Win incl. OT NYI 46.6% · market 44.9% Goals 6.32 · market 6.30 · margin -0.22

Puck line no play

NYI +1.5-225

ours 67.5% · market 66.4% · EV -2.6%

Hit 59.4% (117-80) this season at EV below 0%

Total no play

Over 6.5+105

ours 47.1% · market 46.8% · EV -3.5%

Hit 45.6% (36-43) this season when we're under 0.03 goals off the market

Sun Nov 1, 4:00 PM best EV -2.7%

UTAatPHI

In net: UTA Cossa projected backup · PHI Vladar projected

PHI 31%

OT 22%

UTA 47%

Win incl. OT PHI 41.3% · market 40.7% Goals 6.22 · market 6.20 · margin -0.54

Puck line no play

PHI +1.5-189

ours 63.1% · market 62.9% · EV -3.5%

Hit 59.4% (117-80) this season at EV below 0%

Total no play

Over 6-110

ours 50.8% · market 50.4% · EV -2.7%

Hit 45.6% (36-43) this season when we're under 0.03 goals off the market

Sat Oct 31, 7:00 PM best EV -2.7%

TORatVAN

In net: TOR Stolarz confirmed · VAN Lankinen projected

VAN 28%

OT 21%

TOR 51%

Win incl. OT VAN 37.6% · market 36.9% Goals 6.72 · market 6.70 · margin -0.79

Puck line no play

VAN +1.5-155

ours 59.1% · market 58.3% · EV -2.7%

Hit 59.4% (117-80) this season at EV below 0%

Total no play

Over 6.5-125

ours 53.6% · market 53.2% · EV -3.6%

Hit 45.6% (36-43) this season when we're under 0.03 goals off the market

Sat Oct 31, 4:00 PM best EV -2.8%

BUFatLAK

In net: BUF Luukkonen projected · LAK Kuemper projected

LAK 35%

OT 22%

BUF 42%

Win incl. OT LAK 46.1% · market 44.9% Goals 6.21 · market 6.17 · margin -0.24

Puck line no play

LAK +1.5-225

ours 67.2% · market 66.4% · EV -2.9%

Hit 59.4% (117-80) this season at EV below 0%

Total no play

Over 5.5-135

ours 55.8% · market 55.1% · EV -2.8%

Hit 44.9% (35-43) this season when we're 0.03–0.06 goals off the market

Sat Oct 31, 1:00 PM best EV -3.3%

STLatDET

In net: STL Hofer projected · DET Gibson confirmed

DET 38%

OT 23%

STL 39%

Win incl. OT DET 49.7% · market 48.9% Goals 6.14 · market 6.12 · margin -0.03

Puck line no play

DET +1.5-270

ours 70.2% · market 70.0% · EV -3.8%

Hit 59.4% (117-80) this season at EV below 0%

Total no play

Over 5.5-130

ours 54.7% · market 54.3% · EV -3.3%

Hit 45.6% (36-43) this season when we're under 0.03 goals off the market

Sat Oct 31, 7:00 PM best EV -3.5%

PITatMTL

In net: PIT Murashov confirmed · MTL Fowler confirmed backup

MTL 42%

OT 22%

PIT 36%

Win incl. OT MTL 53.7% · market 53.2% Goals 6.62 · market 6.60 · margin +0.22

Puck line no play

PIT +1.5-230

ours 67.2% · market 66.9% · EV -3.5%

Hit 59.4% (117-80) this season at EV below 0%

Total no play

Over 6.5-118

ours 52.1% · market 51.7% · EV -3.8%

Hit 45.6% (36-43) this season when we're under 0.03 goals off the market

Sat Oct 31, 8:00 PM best EV -3.6%

CBJatDAL

In net: CBJ Greaves confirmed · DAL Oettinger confirmed

DAL 50%

OT 22%

CBJ 28%

Win incl. OT DAL 62.6% · market 63.1% Goals 5.74 · market 5.74 · margin +0.73

Puck line no play

DAL -1.5+145

ours 39.3% · market 39.1% · EV -3.6%

Hit 59.4% (117-80) this season at EV below 0%

Total no play

Over 5.5+100

ours 47.8% · market 47.8% · EV -4.3%

Hit 45.6% (36-43) this season when we're under 0.03 goals off the market

The bar is our probability of each result after 60 minutes. ours is the chance the pick wins (a total's is net of a push on a whole-number line), market is the same chance from the de-vigged price, and EV is the expected return per unit at the posted price. Goals is our expected final total, empty-netters and the shootout goal included, and market is the same number read from the market's prices through the same model — compare those two, not our goals with the posted line. A 5.5 or a 6.0 at even money already expects about 5.9 or 6.2 goals, so against the line most games would look like an over. A pick is flagged play only at EV of 3.0% or more on the puck line and 5.0% on the total, once both teams have played enough games to rate — and only once both starting goalies are confirmed or likely. Until then a pick that clears the bar is marked waiting on goalies. Starters come from the day's news; with none yet, the model uses its own guess from recent starts and the back-to-back rule, and says how sure it is. Every goalie carries his own rating, which follows him through trades.

Does the model know how hockey games end?

Event	Predicted	Actual
goes to overtime	22.0%	22.3%
home wins	53.6%	53.7%
home by 2+ (home -1.5 covers)	32.7%	32.7%
away by 2+ (away -1.5 covers)	27.3%	27.2%
one-goal margin	39.9%	40.0%
total over 5.5	56.0%	57.0%
total exactly 6	10.6%	11.1%
total over 6.5	45.5%	45.9%

The last few minutes of a close game decide the puck line: a team down one or two chases, pulls its goalie, and either ties it or gives up an empty-netter. in regulation a plain Poisson model puts 30% of games on a one-goal margin, and the real figure is 18% — the rest get tied up or iced late. This model plays out the final ten minutes goal by goal.

Record this season

Puck line, by EV at the price

EV at the price	Record	Win%
below 0%	117-80	59.4% vs 55.0
0–2%	6-11	35.3% vs 47.2
2–4%	1-0	100.0% vs 46.8
6%+	0-1	0.0% vs 41.6

Totals, by our goals vs the market's

Goals off the market	Record	Win%
under 0.03	36-43	45.6% vs 50.0
0.03–0.06	35-43-2	44.9% vs 50.6
0.06–0.10	21-23-3	47.7% vs 50.7
0.10+	5-4-1	55.6% vs 51.1

Every graded game this season, staked or not; each pick above shows the row it falls in. The puck line is grouped by the EV of the side we took, because its prices run from long shots to heavy favourites. The total is grouped by how far our expected goals sat from the market's, either way: the published total moves only part of the way toward the model, so nearly every total pays more vig than its edge, and by EV the whole season would sit in one row. The figure after vs is what the market's own prices expected for the same picks — the bar to beat. Green beats it and red falls short; a bucket stays uncoloured until it has 20 games.

Recent results

Game	Puck line	Total	Units
SEA at CGY 2026-10-30 · 2-6	CGY +1.5 win	Over 6.5 win	+0.00
WPG at FLA 2026-10-30 · 2-5	WPG +1.5 loss	Over 6.5 win	+0.00
NJD at VGK 2026-10-30 · 5-2	VGK -1.5 loss	Over 6.5 win	+0.00
WSH at NSH 2026-10-29 · 4-3	NSH -1.5 loss	Under 6.5 loss	+0.00
WPG at TBL 2026-10-29 · 4-6	WPG +1.5 loss	Over 6.5 win	+0.00
UTA at PIT 2026-10-29 · 4-3 OT	PIT +1.5 win	Over 6.5 win	+0.00
CBJ at CAR 2026-10-29 · 2-3	CBJ +1.5 win	Over 5.5 loss	+0.00
BOS at STL 2026-10-29 · 1-4	STL -1.5 win	Over 5.5 loss	+0.00
CHI at DET 2026-10-29 · 1-4	DET -1.5 win	Over 5.5 loss	+0.00
MTL at DAL 2026-10-29 · 5-2	MTL +1.5 win	Under 5.5 loss	+0.00
NYI at MIN 2026-10-29 · 4-3 OT	NYI +1.5 win	Over 5.5 win	+0.00
BUF at ANA 2026-10-29 · 7-6	ANA +1.5 win	Under 6.5 loss	+0.00

Model output, not advice. NHL moneylines and totals are efficiently priced, and the backtest found nothing in totals at all; the puck line is where a public model has a structural reason to disagree with the book, and even there the evidence is three seasons long. Bet only what you can afford to lose.