DegenPredicts

College football spreads and totals · Week 2 · updated 2026-09-08
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Week 2 board

Thu Sep 10, 8:00 PM Δ7.5 · early season
Florida A&MatMiami
Total no play
Under 61.5
model 61.5 · +0.0 vs line
Spread no play
Florida A&M +55.5
model margin 48.0 · -7.5 vs line
Over 60.5 pays 1.76x fair 1.91x -8%
Miami by over 54.5 pays 1.65x fair 2.01x -18%
Florida A&M to win pays 93.52x fair 5000.00x -98%
Sat Sep 12, 3:30 PM Δ7.4 · early season
ArizonaatBYU
Total no play
Under 48.5
model 41.1 · -7.4 vs line
Spread no play
BYU -7.5
model margin 9.4 · +1.9 vs line
Over 49.5 pays 2.05x fair 2.33x -12%
BYU by over 7.5 pays 1.90x fair 1.97x -4%
Arizona to win pays 3.40x fair 3.27x +4%
Sat Sep 12, 3:30 PM Δ7.2 · early season
UTSAatTexas State
Total no play
Under 67.0
model 59.8 · -7.2 vs line
Spread no play
UTSA +1.5
model margin 0.5 · -1.0 vs line
Over 67.5 pays 2.05x fair 2.26x -9%
UTSA by over 1.5 pays 2.09x fair 2.34x -10%
Texas State to win pays 1.83x fair 2.14x -15%
Sat Sep 12, 12:00 PM Δ6.7 · early season
OklahomaatMichigan
Total no play
Under 43.5
model 43.0 · -0.5 vs line
Spread no play
Oklahoma -5.5
model margin -12.2 · -6.7 vs line
Over 43.5 pays 1.93x fair 2.01x -4%
Oklahoma by over 5.5 pays 1.90x fair 1.90x -0%
Michigan to win pays 2.81x fair 1.51x +87%
Sat Sep 12, 7:30 PM Δ6.2 · early season
NavyatFlorida Atlantic
Total no play
Under 59.0
model 52.8 · -6.2 vs line
Spread no play
Navy -5.0
model margin -8.4 · -3.4 vs line
Over 58.5 pays 1.79x fair 2.10x -15%
Navy by over 4.5 pays 1.86x fair 1.90x -2%
Florida Atlantic to win pays 2.73x fair 1.56x +75%
Sat Sep 12, 7:15 PM Δ5.4 · early season
San Diego StateatUCLA
Total no play
Under 55.0
model 50.8 · -4.2 vs line
Spread no play
San Diego State +12.0
model margin 6.6 · -5.4 vs line
Over 55.5 pays 1.97x fair 2.16x -9%
San Diego State by over 11.5 pays 11.74x fair 14.29x -18%
San Diego State to win pays 4.73x fair 4.29x +10%
Sat Sep 12, 7:00 PM Δ5.1 · early season
Middle TennesseeatMarshall
Total no play
Under 57.0
model 56.9 · -0.1 vs line
Spread no play
Marshall -13.5
model margin 18.6 · +5.1 vs line
Over 57.5 pays 1.97x fair 2.05x -4%
Marshall by over 13.5 pays 1.86x fair 1.92x -3%
Middle Tennessee to win pays 5.56x fair 5.68x -2%
Sat Sep 12, 12:00 PM Δ5.0 · early season
Washington StateatKansas State
Total no play
Under 48.5
model 46.3 · -2.2 vs line
Spread no play
Kansas State -19.0
model margin 24.0 · +5.0 vs line
Over 49.5 pays 2.09x fair 2.16x -3%
Kansas State by over 17.5 pays 1.79x fair 1.79x +0%
Kansas State to win pays 1.10x fair 10.10x -89%
Sat Sep 12, 12:00 PM Δ4.9 · early season
App StateatEast Carolina
Total no play
Under 56.5
model 51.6 · -4.9 vs line
Spread no play
App State +7.5
model margin 4.8 · -2.7 vs line
Over 56.5 pays 1.90x fair 2.13x -11%
East Carolina by over 7.5 pays 1.93x fair 2.04x -5%
App State to win pays 3.52x fair 3.10x +14%
Sat Sep 12, 7:00 PM Δ4.9 · early season
TennesseeatGeorgia Tech
Total no play
Under 55.5
model 50.6 · -4.9 vs line
Spread no play
Georgia Tech +13.0
model margin -9.4 · +3.6 vs line
Over 55.5 pays 1.93x fair 2.13x -9%
Georgia Tech by over 13.5 pays 13.41x fair 21.98x -39%
Georgia Tech to win pays 4.98x fair 1.26x +294%
Sat Sep 12, 12:00 PM Δ4.5 · early season
Penn StateatTemple
Total no play
Under 49.5
model 45.9 · -3.6 vs line
Spread no play
Temple +24.0
model margin -19.5 · +4.5 vs line
Over 49.5 pays 1.93x fair 2.09x -8%
Penn State by over 24.5 pays 2.05x fair 2.13x -4%
Temple to win pays 15.64x fair 1.07x +1362%
Sat Sep 12, 3:30 PM Δ4.3 · early season
UCFatPittsburgh
Total no play
Under 57.5
model 53.2 · -4.3 vs line
Spread no play
UCF +7.0
model margin 4.6 · -2.4 vs line
Over 57.5 pays 1.93x fair 2.12x -9%
UCF by over 7.5 pays 5.90x fair 5.57x +6%
UCF to win pays 3.29x fair 2.99x +10%
Sat Sep 12, 12:00 PM Δ4.1 · early season
South FloridaatArmy
Total no play
Over 46.5
model 48.3 · +1.8 vs line
Spread no play
Army -3.5
model margin 7.6 · +4.1 vs line
Over 47.5 pays 1.97x fair 2.05x -4%
South Florida by over 3.5 pays 2.98x fair 3.22x -7%
South Florida to win pays 2.46x fair 2.53x -3%
Sat Sep 12, 7:00 PM Δ4.0 · early season
TulsaatSam Houston
Total no play
Over 51.5
model 52.0 · +0.5 vs line
Spread no play
Sam Houston +14.0
model margin -10.0 · +4.0 vs line
Over 51.5 pays 1.93x fair 1.99x -3%
Tulsa by over 13.5 pays 1.83x fair 2.01x -9%
Sam Houston to win pays 5.25x fair 1.24x +325%
Sat Sep 12, 3:30 PM Δ3.6 · early season
MarylandatUConn
Total no play
Under 52.5
model 48.9 · -3.6 vs line
Spread no play
UConn +12.0
model margin -9.3 · +2.7 vs line
Over 52.5 pays 1.93x fair 2.09x -8%
UConn by over 11.5 pays 11.74x fair 15.02x -22%
UConn to win pays 4.98x fair 1.29x +286%
Sat Sep 12, 12:45 PM Δ3.5 · early season
Western KentuckyatGeorgia
Total no play
Under 55.5
model 54.8 · -0.7 vs line
Spread no play
Georgia -40.5
model margin 44.0 · +3.5 vs line
Over 55.5 pays 1.97x fair 2.02x -2%
Georgia by over 41.5 pays 2.01x fair 2.05x -2%
Western Kentucky to win pays 93.52x fair 263.16x -64%
Sat Sep 12, 4:15 PM Δ3.4 · early season
DelawareatVanderbilt
Total no play
Under 54.5
model 51.1 · -3.4 vs line
Spread no play
Vanderbilt -21.0
model margin 21.4 · +0.4 vs line
Over 54.5 pays 1.93x fair 2.09x -8%
Vanderbilt by over 20.5 pays 1.90x fair 1.94x -2%
Vanderbilt to win pays 1.08x fair 11.76x -91%
Sat Sep 12, 12:00 PM Δ3.4 · early season
Arizona StateatTexas A&M
Total no play
Under 50.0
model 46.6 · -3.4 vs line
Spread no play
Arizona State +14.0
model margin 12.9 · -1.1 vs line
Over 50.5 pays 1.90x fair 2.15x -12%
Texas A&M by over 13.5 pays 1.76x fair 1.97x -10%
Arizona State to win pays 5.56x fair 5.41x +3%
Sat Sep 12, 7:30 PM Δ3.3 · early season
Georgia SouthernatClemson
Total no play
Under 56.0
model 52.7 · -3.3 vs line
Spread no play
Clemson -20.5
model margin 23.5 · +3.0 vs line
Over 56.5 pays 2.01x fair 2.14x -6%
Clemson by over 20.5 pays 1.86x fair 1.96x -5%
Clemson to win pays 1.08x fair 11.48x -91%
Sat Sep 12, 11:00 PM Δ3.3 · early season
LouisianaatUSC
Total no play
Under 59.5
model 56.2 · -3.3 vs line
Spread no play
Louisiana +31.0
model margin 28.2 · -2.8 vs line
Over 59.5 pays 1.93x fair 2.08x -7%
USC by over 30.5 pays 1.90x fair 1.99x -5%
USC to win pays 1.02x fair 42.92x -98%
Fri Sep 11, 7:00 PM Δ3.2 · early season
VillanovaatLouisville
Total no play
Over 56.5
model 57.1 · +0.6 vs line
Spread no play
Louisville -36.5
model margin 39.7 · +3.2 vs line
Over 56.5 pays 1.90x fair 1.99x -5%
Louisville by over 35.5 pays 1.83x fair 1.86x -2%
Louisville to win pays 1.01x fair 123.46x -99%
Sat Sep 12, 3:30 PM Δ3.1 · early season
RiceatNotre Dame
Total no play
Over 56.0
model 59.1 · +3.1 vs line
Spread no play
Rice +44.5
model margin 44.7 · +0.2 vs line
Over 56.5 pays 2.01x fair 1.97x +2%
Notre Dame by over 44.5 pays 1.93x fair 2.00x -3%
Rice to win pays 93.52x fair 526.32x -82%
Fri Sep 11, 7:00 PM Δ3.1 · early season
RichmondatNC State
Total no play
Over 48.5
model 51.6 · +3.1 vs line
Spread no play
Richmond +30.5
model margin 29.3 · -1.2 vs line
Over 48.5 pays 1.86x fair 1.92x -3%
NC State by over 30.5 pays 1.90x fair 2.02x -6%
Sat Sep 12, 7:30 PM Δ3.1 · early season
Texas TechatOregon State
Total no play
Under 54.0
model 53.7 · -0.3 vs line
Spread no play
Texas Tech -27.0
model margin -30.1 · -3.1 vs line
Over 54.5 pays 2.01x fair 2.06x -2%
Texas Tech by over 27.5 pays 2.09x fair 2.00x +5%
Texas Tech to win pays 1.04x fair 1.04x +0%
Sat Sep 12, 6:00 PM Δ3.1 · early season
BuffaloatFlorida International
Total no play
Over 47.5
model 48.5 · +1.0 vs line
Spread no play
Florida International -10.0
model margin 13.1 · +3.1 vs line
Over 47.5 pays 1.90x fair 1.97x -4%
Buffalo by over 9.5 pays 10.45x fair 10.34x +1%
Buffalo to win pays 4.31x fair 4.04x +7%
Fri Sep 11, 8:00 PM Δ2.9 · early season
MissouriatKansas
Total no play
Under 50.0
model 47.1 · -2.9 vs line
Spread no play
Missouri -5.5
model margin -6.7 · -1.2 vs line
Over 50.5 pays 1.97x fair 2.13x -7%
Missouri by over 5.5 pays 1.86x fair 1.98x -6%
Kansas to win pays 2.89x fair 1.55x +87%
Sat Sep 12, 6:00 PM Δ2.8 · early season
MemphisatBoise State
Total no play
Under 54.5
model 53.5 · -1.0 vs line
Spread no play
Boise State -9.5
model margin 12.3 · +2.8 vs line
Over 54.5 pays 1.86x fair 2.03x -8%
Memphis by over 9.5 pays 7.25x fair 9.65x -25%
Memphis to win pays 3.80x fair 3.85x -1%
Sat Sep 12, 3:30 PM Δ2.8 · early season
AlabamaatKentucky
Total no play
Under 49.0
model 46.5 · -2.5 vs line
Spread no play
Kentucky +10.5
model margin -7.7 · +2.8 vs line
Over 48.5 pays 1.79x fair 2.01x -11%
Kentucky by over 10.5 pays 11.74x fair 11.09x +6%
Kentucky to win pays 4.31x fair 1.34x +221%
Sat Sep 12, 7:00 PM Δ2.7 · early season
Georgia StateatKennesaw State
Total no play
Under 54.5
model 51.8 · -2.7 vs line
Spread no play
Kennesaw State -9.5
model margin 11.3 · +1.8 vs line
Over 54.5 pays 1.90x fair 2.07x -8%
Georgia State by over 9.5 pays 9.41x fair 9.54x -1%
Georgia State to win pays 3.80x fair 3.82x -0%
Sat Sep 12, 6:00 PM Δ2.7 · early season
Jacksonville StateatOhio
Total no play
Over 50.5
model 53.2 · +2.7 vs line
Spread no play
Jacksonville State +2.5
model margin 0.4 · -2.1 vs line
Over 50.5 pays 1.86x fair 1.93x -4%
Ohio by over 2.5 pays 1.86x fair 2.03x -8%
Ohio to win pays 1.73x fair 2.26x -23%
Sat Sep 12, 7:45 PM Δ2.6 · early season
Southern MissatAuburn
Total no play
Under 57.5
model 54.9 · -2.6 vs line
Spread no play
Auburn -33.5
model margin 34.2 · +0.7 vs line
Over 56.5 pays 1.90x fair 1.96x -3%
Auburn by over 33.5 pays 1.93x fair 1.99x -3%
Auburn to win pays 1.03x fair 68.97x -98%
Sat Sep 12, 7:30 PM Δ2.6 · early season
Iowa StateatIowa
Total no play
Over 40.5
model 40.8 · +0.3 vs line
Spread no play
Iowa -14.0
model margin 16.6 · +2.6 vs line
Over 40.5 pays 1.97x fair 1.99x -1%
Iowa by over 13.5 pays 1.79x fair 1.91x -6%
Iowa State to win pays 5.56x fair 5.73x -3%
Fri Sep 11, 7:00 PM Δ2.6 · early season
Norfolk StateatVirginia
Total no play
Over 54.5
model 54.8 · +0.3 vs line
Spread no play
Virginia -44.5
model margin 47.1 · +2.6 vs line
Over 54.5 pays 1.86x fair 1.99x -6%
Virginia by over 45.5 pays 1.90x fair 2.06x -8%
Norfolk State to win pays 93.52x fair 555.56x -83%
Sat Sep 12, 7:00 PM Δ2.6 · early season
Bowling GreenatNebraska
Total no play
Under 51.5
model 51.1 · -0.4 vs line
Spread no play
Nebraska -29.0
model margin 31.6 · +2.6 vs line
Over 51.5 pays 1.93x fair 2.01x -4%
Nebraska by over 28.5 pays 1.90x fair 1.91x -1%
Nebraska to win pays 1.03x fair 35.71x -97%
Sat Sep 12, 3:45 PM Δ2.6 · early season
UNLVatNorth Texas
Total no play
Over 57.0
model 58.5 · +1.5 vs line
Spread no play
UNLV -3.5
model margin -6.1 · -2.6 vs line
Over 57.5 pays 1.93x fair 2.01x -4%
North Texas by over 3.5 pays 3.18x fair 3.17x +0%
North Texas to win pays 2.59x fair 1.67x +55%
Sat Sep 12, 3:30 PM Δ2.4 · early season
DukeatIllinois
Total no play
Over 51.0
model 51.7 · +0.7 vs line
Spread no play
Illinois -5.5
model margin 7.9 · +2.4 vs line
Over 51.5 pays 1.86x fair 2.03x -8%
Illinois by over 5.5 pays 1.90x fair 1.96x -3%
Duke to win pays 2.81x fair 2.85x -1%
Sat Sep 12, 7:45 PM Δ2.3 · early season
CharlotteatOle Miss
Total no play
Over 61.5
model 63.8 · +2.3 vs line
Spread no play
Ole Miss -47.5
model margin 48.9 · +1.4 vs line
Over 61.5 pays 1.93x fair 1.94x -0%
Ole Miss by over 48.5 pays 2.14x fair 2.09x +3%
Charlotte to win pays 93.52x fair 1000.00x -91%
Sat Sep 12, 12:00 PM Δ2.3 · early season
OregonatOklahoma State
Total no play
Over 57.5
model 59.8 · +2.3 vs line
Spread no play
Oklahoma State +22.5
model margin -20.5 · +2.0 vs line
Over 58.5 pays 2.01x fair 2.04x -2%
Oregon by over 23.5 pays 1.97x fair 2.14x -8%
Oregon to win pays 1.07x fair 1.08x -1%
Sat Sep 12, 10:30 PM Δ2.3 · early season
Sacramento StateatFresno State
Total no play
Under 45.0
model 42.7 · -2.3 vs line
Spread no play
Fresno State -18.0
model margin 18.5 · +0.5 vs line
Over 46.5 pays 2.01x fair 2.23x -10%
Fresno State by over 17.5 pays 1.83x fair 1.94x -6%
Sacramento State to win pays 7.85x fair 8.36x -6%
Sat Sep 12, 12:00 PM Δ2.1 · early season
Old DominionatVirginia Tech
Total no play
Under 50.0
model 47.9 · -2.1 vs line
Spread no play
Virginia Tech -19.0
model margin 20.6 · +1.6 vs line
Over 49.5 pays 1.86x fair 2.00x -7%
Virginia Tech by over 20.5 pays 2.05x fair 2.14x -4%
Virginia Tech to win pays 1.12x fair 9.44x -88%
Sat Sep 12, 7:30 PM Δ2.0 · early season
Ohio StateatTexas
Total no play
Under 49.0
model 47.0 · -2.0 vs line
Spread no play
Texas -2.0
model margin 3.3 · +1.3 vs line
Over 48.5 pays 1.90x fair 2.00x -5%
Texas by over 1.5 pays 1.93x fair 1.93x +0%
Texas to win pays 1.83x fair 2.26x -19%
Sat Sep 12, 10:00 PM Δ1.9 · early season
North Dakota StateatAir Force
Total no play
Under 47.5
model 47.3 · -0.2 vs line
Spread no play
Air Force +2.5
model margin -0.6 · +1.9 vs line
Over 47.5 pays 1.93x fair 2.00x -3%
North Dakota State by over 2.5 pays 1.83x fair 2.03x -10%
North Dakota State to win pays 1.76x fair 1.80x -2%
Sat Sep 12, 3:30 PM Δ1.8 · early season
Eastern MichiganatMichigan State
Total no play
Under 49.0
model 49.0 · +0.0 vs line
Spread no play
Eastern Michigan +17.0
model margin 15.2 · -1.8 vs line
Over 49.5 pays 1.97x fair 2.05x -4%
Michigan State by over 17.5 pays 2.01x fair 2.09x -4%
Eastern Michigan to win pays 7.25x fair 7.20x +1%
Sat Sep 12, 3:30 PM Δ1.7 · early season
Utah StateatWashington
Total no play
Over 55.5
model 57.2 · +1.7 vs line
Spread no play
Utah State +26.5
model margin 25.9 · -0.6 vs line
Over 55.5 pays 1.90x fair 1.96x -3%
Washington by over 27.5 pays 2.01x fair 2.12x -5%
Washington to win pays 1.04x fair 23.26x -96%
Sat Sep 12, 3:30 PM Δ1.6 · early season
UL MonroeatUAB
Total no play
Over 56.0
model 57.6 · +1.6 vs line
Spread no play
UL Monroe +9.5
model margin 8.8 · -0.7 vs line
Fri Sep 11, 7:30 PM Δ1.6 · early season
RutgersatBoston College
Total no play
Over 54.0
model 54.5 · +0.5 vs line
Spread no play
Rutgers +3.5
model margin 1.9 · -1.6 vs line
Over 53.5 pays 1.83x fair 1.94x -6%
Rutgers by over 3.5 pays 3.08x fair 3.04x +1%
Rutgers to win pays 2.40x fair 2.41x -0%
Sat Sep 12, 3:30 PM Δ1.5 · early season
Mississippi StateatMinnesota
Total no play
Under 55.5
model 54.0 · -1.5 vs line
Spread no play
Mississippi State +1.0
model margin 0.9 · -0.1 vs line
Over 55.5 pays 1.93x fair 2.04x -5%
Mississippi State by over 1.5 pays 2.05x fair 2.30x -11%
Minnesota to win pays 1.97x fair 2.11x -7%
Sat Sep 12, 7:30 PM Δ1.5 · early season
Louisiana TechatLSU
Total no play
Over 56.0
model 56.7 · +0.7 vs line
Spread no play
LSU -35.0
model margin 36.5 · +1.5 vs line
Over 55.5 pays 1.83x fair 1.93x -6%
LSU by over 35.5 pays 1.90x fair 2.03x -7%
Louisiana Tech to win pays 93.52x fair 90.91x +3%
Sat Sep 12, 7:00 PM Δ1.4 · early season
South AlabamaatTulane
Total no play
Under 49.5
model 48.1 · -1.4 vs line
Spread no play
South Alabama +9.5
model margin 9.4 · -0.1 vs line
Over 50.5 pays 2.05x fair 2.14x -4%
South Alabama by over 9.5 pays 8.56x fair 9.23x -7%
South Alabama to win pays 3.80x fair 3.73x +2%
Sat Sep 12, 12:00 PM Δ1.0 · early season
Wake ForestatPurdue
Total no play
Over 50.0
model 50.3 · +0.3 vs line
Spread no play
Wake Forest -3.0
model margin -4.0 · -1.0 vs line
Over 50.5 pays 1.97x fair 2.04x -3%
Wake Forest by over 2.5 pays 1.76x fair 1.93x -9%
Purdue to win pays 2.34x fair 1.72x +36%
Sat Sep 12, 10:15 PM Δ0.5 · early season
ArkansasatUtah
Total no play
Under 55.0
model 54.5 · -0.5 vs line
Spread no play
Arkansas +12.0
model margin 12.2 · +0.2 vs line
Over 54.5 pays 1.79x fair 1.96x -8%
Arkansas by over 11.5 pays 11.74x fair 15.80x -26%
Arkansas to win pays 4.73x fair 4.60x +3%
Sat Sep 12, 11:59 PM Δ0.5
New Mexico StateatHawai'i
Total no play
Under 50.5
model 50.7 · +0.2 vs line
Spread no play
New Mexico State +8.0
model margin 7.5 · -0.5 vs line
Sat Sep 12, 3:30 PM Δ0.5 · early season
CaliforniaatSyracuse
Total no play
Under 56.5
model 56.0 · -0.5 vs line
Spread no play
California +3.0
model margin 2.6 · -0.4 vs line
Over 56.5 pays 1.86x fair 2.01x -7%
Syracuse by over 2.5 pays 1.70x fair 1.96x -13%
California to win pays 2.40x fair 2.35x +2%

pays is what a Kalshi contract returns per unit risked after the taker fee. fair is what our model says it should return. Paying more than fair is the edge.

Recent results

GameTotalSpreadUnits
SMU at Florida State
2026-09-07 · 51 pts		 win loss +0.00
Wisconsin at Notre Dame
2026-09-06 · 54 pts		 loss loss +0.00
Louisville at Ole Miss
2026-09-06 · 79 pts		 loss loss -0.75
Washington State at Washington
2026-09-06 · 34 pts		 win win +0.00
South Carolina State at Florida A&M
2026-09-06 · 44 pts		 win loss +0.08
Texas Southern at Prairie View A&M
2026-09-06 · 66 pts		 win win +0.00
Missouri State at Texas A&M
2026-09-05 · 50 pts		 loss loss +0.00
Murray State at Middle Tennessee
2026-09-05 · 52 pts		 loss win +0.00
Chicago State at UT Martin
2026-09-05 · 49 pts		 loss loss +0.00
Florida International at South Florida
2026-09-05 · 28 pts		 win win +0.00
Houston Christian at Rice
2026-09-05 · 34 pts		 loss win -0.09
Arkansas State at Memphis
2026-09-05 · 66 pts		 loss win +0.00

Cover rate by model disagreement

|Model − line|TotalsWin%SpreadsWin%
0-114-1351.9% 8-27 22.9%
1-210-1245.5% 14-18 43.8%
2-315-671.4% 10-8 55.6%
3-514-766.7% 7-7 50.0%
5-76-554.5% 0-4 0.0%
7-+3-0100.0% 2-0 100.0%
Model output, not advice. College football markets are efficient and any real edge is small and slow to prove out — weeks 1–4 especially, when little is known about this year's teams. Bet only what you can afford to lose.