Season
Totals
-4.42u
3-8
· 27.3% · ROI -60.2%
Spreads
-0.65u
5-7
· 41.7% · ROI -11.0%
Totals CLV
-0.23
line moved against us
Spreads CLV
-0.88
line moved against us
Break-even at kalshi_taker is 51.75%.
CLV is the fastest honest read on whether there's an edge. Records count staked plays only.
Covers all 581 graded games, of which
140 were FBS vs FCS — a different population (median spread 30.5 against
8.5), staked on the same thresholds and broken out under by_class.
Week 9 board
Sat Oct 31, 12:00 PM
play Δ6.6
Notre DamevsNavy
Total no play
Under 54.5
model 52.3 · -2.2 vs line
Hit 53.4% (55-48) this season at 2–3 pts off
Spread play
Navy +30.5
model: Notre Dame by 23.9 · 6.6 pts off the line
Hit 30.0% (6-14) this season at 5–7 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Navy +30.5
DraftKings −102
Navy +30.5
Kalshi 49¢ −103
Under 54.5
DraftKings −102
Under 54.5
Kalshi 47¢ +105
Sat Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Δ5.3
New MexicoatSan José State
Total no play
Over 42.5
model 47.8 · +5.3 vs line
Hit 54.8% (17-14) this season at 5–7 pts off
Spread no play
New Mexico -14.5
model: New Mexico by 15.6 · 1.1 pts off the line
Hit 56.2% (82-64) this season at 1–2 pts off
Where to bet the pick
New Mexico -14.5
DraftKings −115
New Mexico -14.5
Kalshi 52¢ −116
Over 42.5
DraftKings −115
Over 42.5
Kalshi 52¢ −116
Sat Nov 07, 6:15 PM
Δ5.0
KentuckyatTennessee
Total no play
Under 50.5
model 50.7 · +0.2 vs line
Hit 52.0% (92-85) this season at 0–1 pts off
Spread no play
Tennessee -5.5
model: Tennessee by 10.5 · 5.0 pts off the line
Hit 30.0% (6-14) this season at 5–7 pts off
Sat Nov 07, 7:30 PM
Δ4.4
GeorgiaatOle Miss
Total no play
Under 56.5
model 52.1 · -4.4 vs line
Hit 51.9% (56-52) this season at 3–5 pts off
Spread no play
Ole Miss +3.0
model: Georgia by 1.7 · 1.3 pts off the line
Hit 56.2% (82-64) this season at 1–2 pts off
Sat Oct 31, 3:30 PM
Δ4.2
Colorado StateatUtah State
Total no play
Under 60.5
model 58.2 · -2.3 vs line
Hit 53.4% (55-48) this season at 2–3 pts off
Spread no play
Colorado State +8.5
model: Utah State by 4.3 · 4.2 pts off the line
Hit 48.5% (47-50) this season at 3–5 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Colorado State +8.5
DraftKings −115
Colorado State +9.5
Kalshi 53¢ −121
Under 60.5
DraftKings −108
Under 59.5
Kalshi 49¢ −103
Sat Oct 31, 3:30 PM
Δ4.1
NorthwesternatOregon
Total no play
Under 47.5
model 43.4 · -4.1 vs line
Hit 51.9% (56-52) this season at 3–5 pts off
Spread no play
Oregon -3.5
model: Oregon by 6.3 · 2.8 pts off the line
Hit 59.0% (72-50) this season at 2–3 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Oregon -3.5
DraftKings −118
Oregon -3.5
Kalshi 53¢ −121
Under 47.5
DraftKings −105
Under 46.5
Kalshi 45¢ +114
Sat Oct 31, 7:00 PM
Δ4.1
Oklahoma StateatIowa State
Total no play
Over 58.5
model 59.9 · +1.4 vs line
Hit 51.6% (81-76) this season at 1–2 pts off
Spread no play
Iowa State +9.5
model: Oklahoma State by 5.4 · 4.1 pts off the line
Hit 48.5% (47-50) this season at 3–5 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Iowa State +9.5
DraftKings −108
Iowa State +9.5
Kalshi 50¢ −107
Over 58.5
DraftKings −102
Over 58.5
Kalshi 49¢ −103
Sat Nov 07, 3:30 PM
Δ3.9
OregonatOhio State
Total no play
Under 45.5
model 44.8 · -0.7 vs line
Hit 52.0% (92-85) this season at 0–1 pts off
Spread no play
Ohio State -14.0
model: Ohio State by 17.9 · 3.9 pts off the line
Hit 48.5% (47-50) this season at 3–5 pts off
Sat Oct 31, 10:00 PM
Δ3.9
Texas StateatBoise State
Total no play
Under 63.5
model 59.6 · -3.9 vs line
Hit 51.9% (56-52) this season at 3–5 pts off
Spread no play
Boise State -10.5
model: Boise State by 12.9 · 2.4 pts off the line
Hit 59.0% (72-50) this season at 2–3 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Boise State -10.5
DraftKings −110
Boise State -10.5
Kalshi 51¢ −112
Under 63.5
DraftKings −108
Under 63.5
Kalshi 50¢ −107
Sat Oct 31, 3:30 PM
Δ3.8
FloridavsGeorgia
Total no play
Under 56.5
model 52.7 · -3.8 vs line
Hit 51.9% (56-52) this season at 3–5 pts off
Spread no play
Georgia -12.5
model: Georgia by 15.1 · 2.6 pts off the line
Hit 59.0% (72-50) this season at 2–3 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Georgia -12.5
DraftKings −108
Georgia -11.5
Kalshi 51¢ −112
Under 56.5
DraftKings −108
Under 56.5
Kalshi 51¢ −112
Sat Oct 31, 12:00 PM
Δ3.6
ArizonaatTexas Tech
Total no play
Under 54.5
model 52.7 · -1.8 vs line
Hit 51.6% (81-76) this season at 1–2 pts off
Spread no play
Texas Tech -3.5
model: Texas Tech by 7.1 · 3.6 pts off the line
Hit 48.5% (47-50) this season at 3–5 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Texas Tech -3.5
DraftKings −112
Texas Tech -3.5
Kalshi 52¢ −116
Under 54.5
DraftKings −110
Under 54.5
Kalshi 51¢ −112
Sat Oct 31, 7:30 PM
Δ3.5
Ohio StateatUSC
Total no play
Under 50.5
model 49.1 · -1.4 vs line
Hit 51.6% (81-76) this season at 1–2 pts off
Spread no play
Ohio State -6.5
model: Ohio State by 10.0 · 3.5 pts off the line
Hit 48.5% (47-50) this season at 3–5 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Ohio State -6.5
DraftKings −108
Ohio State -6.5
Kalshi 50¢ −107
Under 50.5
DraftKings −108
Under 50.5
Kalshi 48¢ +101
Time TBD
Δ3.4
UCLAatMinnesota
Total no play
Over 42.5
model 45.9 · +3.4 vs line
Hit 51.9% (56-52) this season at 3–5 pts off
Spread no play
UCLA -6.5
model: UCLA by 7.0 · 0.5 pts off the line
Hit 46.1% (82-96) this season at 0–1 pts off
Sat Oct 31, 12:30 PM
Δ3.4
MichiganatRutgers
Total no play
Under 46.5
model 44.5 · -2.0 vs line
Hit 53.4% (55-48) this season at 2–3 pts off
Spread no play
Michigan -16.5
model: Michigan by 19.9 · 3.4 pts off the line
Hit 48.5% (47-50) this season at 3–5 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Michigan -16.5
DraftKings −110
Michigan -16.5
Kalshi 49¢ −103
Under 46.5
DraftKings −105
Under 46.5
Kalshi 50¢ −107
Sat Oct 31, 6:30 PM
Δ3.3
App StateatGeorgia Southern
Total no play
Over 55.5
model 58.8 · +3.3 vs line
Hit 51.9% (56-52) this season at 3–5 pts off
Spread no play
Georgia Southern -6.0
model: Georgia Southern by 7.2 · 1.2 pts off the line
Hit 56.2% (82-64) this season at 1–2 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Georgia Southern -6.0
DraftKings −110
Georgia Southern -5.5
Kalshi 53¢ −121
Over 55.5
DraftKings −115
Over 55.5
Kalshi 50¢ −107
Sat Oct 31, 4:15 PM
Δ3.3
South CarolinaatOklahoma
Total no play
Under 44.5
model 44.1 · -0.4 vs line
Hit 52.0% (92-85) this season at 0–1 pts off
Spread no play
Oklahoma -3.5
model: Oklahoma by 6.8 · 3.3 pts off the line
Hit 48.5% (47-50) this season at 3–5 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Oklahoma -3.5
DraftKings −105
Oklahoma -3.5
Kalshi 49¢ −103
Under 44.5
DraftKings −112
Under 44.5
Kalshi 51¢ −112
Sat Oct 31, 3:30 PM
Δ3.2
Southern MissatUL Monroe
Total no play
Over 55.5
model 58.7 · +3.2 vs line
Hit 51.9% (56-52) this season at 3–5 pts off
Spread no play
Southern Miss -3.5
model: Southern Miss by 3.5 · 0.0 pts off the line
Hit 46.1% (82-96) this season at 0–1 pts off
Sat Nov 07, 7:45 PM
Δ3.1
OklahomaatFlorida
Total no play
Over 48.5
model 51.6 · +3.1 vs line
Hit 51.9% (56-52) this season at 3–5 pts off
Spread no play
Oklahoma +4.0
model: Florida by 3.4 · 0.6 pts off the line
Hit 46.1% (82-96) this season at 0–1 pts off
Sat Oct 31, 12:00 PM
Δ3.1
UABatSouth Florida
Total no play
Over 42.5
model 45.6 · +3.1 vs line
Hit 51.9% (56-52) this season at 3–5 pts off
Spread no play
UAB +7.5
model: South Florida by 4.5 · 3.0 pts off the line
Hit 48.5% (47-50) this season at 3–5 pts off
Where to bet the pick
UAB +7.5
DraftKings −112
UAB +7.5
Kalshi 50¢ −107
Over 42.5
DraftKings −108
Over 42.5
Kalshi 50¢ −107
Sat Oct 31, 3:45 PM
Δ2.9
UtahatCincinnati
Total no play
Under 56.5
model 53.6 · -2.9 vs line
Hit 53.4% (55-48) this season at 2–3 pts off
Spread no play
Cincinnati +7.0
model: Utah by 6.3 · 0.7 pts off the line
Hit 46.1% (82-96) this season at 0–1 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Cincinnati +7.0
DraftKings −110
Cincinnati +7.5
Kalshi 53¢ −121
Under 56.5
DraftKings −110
Under 56.5
Kalshi 49¢ −103
Fri Nov 06, 7:00 PM
Δ2.9
Virginia TechatSMU
Total no play
Under 57.5
model 54.6 · -2.9 vs line
Hit 53.4% (55-48) this season at 2–3 pts off
Spread no play
SMU -7.5
model: SMU by 7.9 · 0.4 pts off the line
Hit 46.1% (82-96) this season at 0–1 pts off
Where to bet the pick
SMU -7.5 thin
Kalshi 57¢ −142
Under 57.5 thin
Kalshi 89¢ −869
Sat Oct 31, 12:00 PM
Δ2.9
Bowling GreenatWestern Michigan
Total no play
Under 44.5
model 41.6 · -2.9 vs line
Hit 53.4% (55-48) this season at 2–3 pts off
Spread no play
Western Michigan -14.0
model: Western Michigan by 15.1 · 1.1 pts off the line
Hit 56.2% (82-64) this season at 1–2 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Western Michigan -14.0
DraftKings −110
Western Michigan -13.5
Kalshi 53¢ −121
Under 44.5
DraftKings −110
Under 44.5
Kalshi 50¢ −107
Sat Oct 31, 7:30 PM
Δ2.8
Mississippi StateatTexas
Total no play
Under 50.5
model 50.2 · -0.3 vs line
Hit 52.0% (92-85) this season at 0–1 pts off
Spread no play
Mississippi State +20.5
model: Texas by 17.7 · 2.8 pts off the line
Hit 59.0% (72-50) this season at 2–3 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Mississippi State +20.5
DraftKings −112
Mississippi State +20.5
Kalshi 50¢ −107
Under 50.5
DraftKings −110
Under 50.5
Kalshi 51¢ −112
Sat Nov 07, 12:00 PM
Δ2.7
TexasatMissouri
Total no play
Under 49.5
model 46.8 · -2.7 vs line
Hit 53.4% (55-48) this season at 2–3 pts off
Spread no play
Missouri +3.5
model: Texas by 1.8 · 1.7 pts off the line
Hit 56.2% (82-64) this season at 1–2 pts off
Sat Oct 31, 3:30 PM
Δ2.7
MinnesotaatIndiana
Total no play
Over 40.5
model 43.2 · +2.7 vs line
Hit 53.4% (55-48) this season at 2–3 pts off
Spread no play
Minnesota +20.5
model: Indiana by 20.2 · 0.3 pts off the line
Hit 46.1% (82-96) this season at 0–1 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Minnesota +20.5
DraftKings −108
Minnesota +20.5
Kalshi 49¢ −103
Over 40.5
DraftKings −108
Over 41.5
Kalshi 48¢ +101
Sat Nov 07, 12:00 PM
Δ2.7
BYUatUtah
Total no play
Under 48.5
model 45.8 · -2.7 vs line
Hit 53.4% (55-48) this season at 2–3 pts off
Spread no play
Utah -3.0
model: Utah by 5.3 · 2.3 pts off the line
Hit 59.0% (72-50) this season at 2–3 pts off
Sat Nov 07, 7:30 PM
Δ2.6
Air ForceatArmy
Total no play
Over 50.5
model 53.1 · +2.6 vs line
Hit 53.4% (55-48) this season at 2–3 pts off
Spread no play
Air Force +5.5
model: Army by 3.8 · 1.7 pts off the line
Hit 56.2% (82-64) this season at 1–2 pts off
Sat Oct 31, 7:00 PM
Δ2.6
Washington StateatSan Diego State
Total no play
Under 47.5
model 47.4 · -0.1 vs line
Hit 52.0% (92-85) this season at 0–1 pts off
Spread no play
Washington State +2.5
model: Washington State by 0.1 · 2.6 pts off the line
Hit 59.0% (72-50) this season at 2–3 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Washington State +2.5
DraftKings −105
Washington State +2.5
Kalshi 49¢ −103
Under 47.5
DraftKings −105
Under 47.5
Kalshi 49¢ −103
Sat Oct 31, 3:30 PM
Δ2.6
KansasatTCU
Total no play
Under 45.5
model 42.9 · -2.6 vs line
Hit 53.4% (55-48) this season at 2–3 pts off
Spread no play
Kansas +6.0
model: TCU by 5.6 · 0.4 pts off the line
Hit 46.1% (82-96) this season at 0–1 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Kansas +6.0
DraftKings −110
Kansas +6.5
Kalshi 51¢ −112
Under 45.5
DraftKings −110
Under 46.5
Kalshi 52¢ −116
Sat Oct 31, 4:15 PM
Δ2.5
PurdueatPenn State
Total no play
Over 54.5
model 57.0 · +2.5 vs line
Hit 53.4% (55-48) this season at 2–3 pts off
Spread no play
Purdue +10.0
model: Penn State by 9.6 · 0.4 pts off the line
Hit 46.1% (82-96) this season at 0–1 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Purdue +10.0
DraftKings −105
Purdue +10.5
Kalshi 51¢ −112
Over 54.5
DraftKings −115
Over 54.5
Kalshi 53¢ −121
Sat Oct 31, 7:00 PM
Δ2.4
ClemsonatFlorida State
Total no play
Over 50.5
model 52.9 · +2.4 vs line
Hit 53.4% (55-48) this season at 2–3 pts off
Spread no play
Florida State -5.5
model: Florida State by 7.0 · 1.5 pts off the line
Hit 56.2% (82-64) this season at 1–2 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Florida State -5.5
DraftKings −108
Florida State -5.5
Kalshi 50¢ −107
Over 50.5
DraftKings −110
Over 50.5
Kalshi 49¢ −103
Sat Oct 31, 3:30 PM
Δ2.4
Arizona StateatBYU
Total no play
Under 47.5
model 45.1 · -2.4 vs line
Hit 53.4% (55-48) this season at 2–3 pts off
Spread no play
BYU -16.5
model: BYU by 17.1 · 0.6 pts off the line
Hit 46.1% (82-96) this season at 0–1 pts off
Where to bet the pick
BYU -16.5
DraftKings −115
BYU -16.5
Kalshi 52¢ −116
Under 47.5
DraftKings −105
Under 46.5
Kalshi 47¢ +105
Sat Oct 31, 2:00 PM
Δ2.3
Coastal CarolinaatGeorgia State
Total no play
Under 55.5
model 53.2 · -2.3 vs line
Hit 53.4% (55-48) this season at 2–3 pts off
Spread no play
Coastal Carolina +3.5
model: Georgia State by 2.4 · 1.1 pts off the line
Hit 56.2% (82-64) this season at 1–2 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Coastal Carolina +3.5
DraftKings −108
Coastal Carolina +3.5
Kalshi 50¢ −107
Under 55.5
DraftKings −108
Under 56.5
Kalshi 52¢ −116
Sat Oct 31, 3:45 PM
Δ2.3
VirginiaatWake Forest
Total no play
Over 47.5
model 49.8 · +2.3 vs line
Hit 53.4% (55-48) this season at 2–3 pts off
Spread no play
Wake Forest -12.5
model: Wake Forest by 13.9 · 1.4 pts off the line
Hit 56.2% (82-64) this season at 1–2 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Wake Forest -12.5
DraftKings −112
Wake Forest -11.5
Kalshi 53¢ −121
Over 47.5
DraftKings −115
Over 47.5
Kalshi 52¢ −116
Sat Oct 31, 1:00 PM
Δ2.3
MarshallatOld Dominion
Total no play
Over 46.5
model 48.2 · +1.7 vs line
Hit 51.6% (81-76) this season at 1–2 pts off
Spread no play
Marshall -3.0
model: Marshall by 5.3 · 2.3 pts off the line
Hit 59.0% (72-50) this season at 2–3 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Marshall -3.0
DraftKings −102
Marshall -2.5
Kalshi 53¢ −121
Over 46.5
DraftKings −115
Over 46.5
Kalshi 50¢ −107
Sat Oct 31, 12:00 PM
Δ2.3
WisconsinatIowa
Total no play
Under 36.5
model 35.9 · -0.6 vs line
Hit 52.0% (92-85) this season at 0–1 pts off
Spread no play
Iowa -2.5
model: Iowa by 4.8 · 2.3 pts off the line
Hit 59.0% (72-50) this season at 2–3 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Iowa -2.5
DraftKings −115
Iowa -2.5
Kalshi 51¢ −112
Under 36.5
DraftKings −112
Under 37.5
Kalshi 55¢ −131
Sat Oct 31, 4:15 PM
Δ2.2
NevadaatUCLA
Total no play
Over 42.5
model 44.5 · +2.0 vs line
Hit 53.4% (55-48) this season at 2–3 pts off
Spread no play
UCLA -22.5
model: UCLA by 24.7 · 2.2 pts off the line
Hit 59.0% (72-50) this season at 2–3 pts off
Where to bet the pick
UCLA -22.5
DraftKings −110
UCLA -21.5
Kalshi 51¢ −112
Over 42.5
DraftKings −110
Over 43.5
Kalshi 51¢ −112
Sat Oct 31, 7:45 PM
Δ2.2
MissouriatArkansas
Total no play
Under 48.5
model 47.6 · -0.9 vs line
Hit 52.0% (92-85) this season at 0–1 pts off
Spread no play
Arkansas +10.0
model: Missouri by 7.8 · 2.2 pts off the line
Hit 59.0% (72-50) this season at 2–3 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Arkansas +10.0
DraftKings −110
Arkansas +10.5
Kalshi 52¢ −116
Under 48.5
DraftKings −110
Under 48.5
Kalshi 50¢ −107
Sat Oct 31, 8:00 PM
Δ2.2
WashingtonatNebraska
Total no play
Under 49.5
model 49.0 · -0.5 vs line
Hit 52.0% (92-85) this season at 0–1 pts off
Spread no play
Nebraska -7.5
model: Nebraska by 9.7 · 2.2 pts off the line
Hit 59.0% (72-50) this season at 2–3 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Nebraska -7.5
DraftKings −110
Nebraska -7.5
Kalshi 51¢ −112
Under 49.5
DraftKings −105
Under 49.5
Kalshi 49¢ −103
Sat Oct 31, 3:30 PM
Δ2.1
UTEPatNorth Dakota State
Total no play
Under 43.5
model 42.9 · -0.6 vs line
Hit 52.0% (92-85) this season at 0–1 pts off
Spread no play
North Dakota State -23.5
model: North Dakota State by 25.6 · 2.1 pts off the line
Hit 59.0% (72-50) this season at 2–3 pts off
Where to bet the pick
North Dakota State -23.5
DraftKings −118
North Dakota State -23.5
Kalshi 53¢ −121
Under 43.5
DraftKings −110
Under 43.5
Kalshi 49¢ −103
Sat Oct 31, 7:30 PM
Δ2.1
MiamiatNorth Carolina
Total no play
Over 53.5
model 55.6 · +2.1 vs line
Hit 53.4% (55-48) this season at 2–3 pts off
Spread no play
North Carolina +14.0
model: Miami by 12.6 · 1.4 pts off the line
Hit 56.2% (82-64) this season at 1–2 pts off
Where to bet the pick
North Carolina +14.0
DraftKings −112
North Carolina +14.5
Kalshi 53¢ −121
Over 53.5
DraftKings −108
Over 53.5
Kalshi 49¢ −103
Sat Oct 31, 7:30 PM
Δ1.9
Georgia TechatPittsburgh
Total no play
Under 54.5
model 52.6 · -1.9 vs line
Hit 51.6% (81-76) this season at 1–2 pts off
Spread no play
Georgia Tech +7.5
model: Pittsburgh by 7.5 · 0.0 pts off the line
Hit 46.1% (82-96) this season at 0–1 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Georgia Tech +7.5
DraftKings −110
Georgia Tech +7.5
Kalshi 49¢ −103
Under 54.5
DraftKings −102
Under 54.5
Kalshi 50¢ −107
Sat Oct 31, 12:00 PM
Δ1.9
IllinoisatMaryland
Total no play
Over 53.5
model 55.4 · +1.9 vs line
Hit 51.6% (81-76) this season at 1–2 pts off
Spread no play
Maryland +2.5
model: Illinois by 1.6 · 0.9 pts off the line
Hit 46.1% (82-96) this season at 0–1 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Maryland +2.5
DraftKings −108
Maryland +2.5
Kalshi 49¢ −103
Over 53.5
DraftKings −112
Over 53.5
Kalshi 52¢ −116
Sat Oct 31, 12:45 PM
Δ1.9
AuburnatOle Miss
Total no play
Under 57.5
model 55.9 · -1.6 vs line
Hit 51.6% (81-76) this season at 1–2 pts off
Spread no play
Ole Miss -11.5
model: Ole Miss by 13.4 · 1.9 pts off the line
Hit 56.2% (82-64) this season at 1–2 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Ole Miss -11.5
DraftKings −110
Ole Miss -11.5
Kalshi 50¢ −107
Under 57.5
DraftKings −102
Under 57.5
Kalshi 48¢ +101
Sat Oct 31, 2:00 PM
Δ1.8
Kansas StateatColorado
Total no play
Under 46.5
model 46.0 · -0.5 vs line
Hit 52.0% (92-85) this season at 0–1 pts off
Spread no play
Kansas State +3.0
model: Colorado by 1.2 · 1.8 pts off the line
Hit 56.2% (82-64) this season at 1–2 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Kansas State +3.0
DraftKings −112
Kansas State +3.5
Kalshi 52¢ −116
Under 46.5
DraftKings −108
Under 46.5
Kalshi 50¢ −107
Sat Oct 31, 3:00 PM
Δ1.8
Louisiana TechatSouth Alabama
Total no play
Over 57.5
model 59.3 · +1.8 vs line
Hit 51.6% (81-76) this season at 1–2 pts off
Spread no play
Louisiana Tech -6.0
model: Louisiana Tech by 7.6 · 1.6 pts off the line
Hit 56.2% (82-64) this season at 1–2 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Louisiana Tech -6.0
DraftKings −112
Louisiana Tech -5.5
Kalshi 53¢ −121
Over 57.5
DraftKings −115
Over 57.5
Kalshi 54¢ −126
Sat Oct 31, 3:00 PM
Δ1.7
UConnatAir Force
Total no play
Under 52.5
model 52.3 · -0.2 vs line
Hit 52.0% (92-85) this season at 0–1 pts off
Spread no play
Air Force -1.5
model: Air Force by 3.2 · 1.7 pts off the line
Hit 56.2% (82-64) this season at 1–2 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Air Force -1.5
DraftKings −102
Air Force -1.5
Kalshi 48¢ +101
Under 52.5
DraftKings −115
Under 52.5
Kalshi 50¢ −107
Sat Nov 07, 3:30 PM
Δ1.4
AlabamaatLSU
Total no play
Under 52.5
model 52.1 · -0.4 vs line
Hit 52.0% (92-85) this season at 0–1 pts off
Spread no play
LSU -4.5
model: LSU by 5.9 · 1.4 pts off the line
Hit 56.2% (82-64) this season at 1–2 pts off
Sat Oct 31, 12:00 PM
Δ1.4
Boston CollegeatDuke
Total no play
Over 49.5
model 50.9 · +1.4 vs line
Hit 51.6% (81-76) this season at 1–2 pts off
Spread no play
Boston College +7.0
model: Duke by 6.8 · 0.2 pts off the line
Hit 46.1% (82-96) this season at 0–1 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Boston College +7.0
DraftKings −115
Boston College +7.5
Kalshi 54¢ −126
Over 49.5
DraftKings −105
Over 49.5
Kalshi 50¢ −107
Sat Oct 31, 3:15 PM
Δ1.3
StanfordatLouisville
Total no play
Under 60.5
model 59.2 · -1.3 vs line
Hit 51.6% (81-76) this season at 1–2 pts off
Spread no play
Louisville -22.5
model: Louisville by 23.5 · 1.0 pts off the line
Hit 56.2% (82-64) this season at 1–2 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Louisville -22.5
DraftKings −112
Louisville -21.5
Kalshi 52¢ −116
Under 60.5
DraftKings −110
Under 60.5
Kalshi 51¢ −112
Sat Oct 31, 12:00 PM
Δ1.3
SMUatSyracuse
Total no play
Over 58.5
model 59.8 · +1.3 vs line
Hit 51.6% (81-76) this season at 1–2 pts off
Spread no play
SMU -9.5
model: SMU by 9.9 · 0.4 pts off the line
Hit 46.1% (82-96) this season at 0–1 pts off
Where to bet the pick
SMU -9.5
DraftKings −110
SMU -9.5
Kalshi 51¢ −112
Over 58.5
DraftKings −108
Over 58.5
Kalshi 51¢ −112
Sat Oct 31, 11:00 PM
Δ1.2
Oregon StateatFresno State
Total no play
Over 57.5
model 57.8 · +0.3 vs line
Hit 52.0% (92-85) this season at 0–1 pts off
Spread no play
Fresno State +6.0
model: Oregon State by 4.8 · 1.2 pts off the line
Hit 56.2% (82-64) this season at 1–2 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Fresno State +6.0
DraftKings −112
Fresno State +6.5
Kalshi 50¢ −107
Over 57.5
DraftKings −108
Over 57.5
Kalshi 49¢ −103
Sat Oct 31, 12:00 PM
Δ1.1
CaliforniaatNC State
Total no play
Over 56.5
model 57.6 · +1.1 vs line
Hit 51.6% (81-76) this season at 1–2 pts off
Spread no play
California +9.5
model: NC State by 9.4 · 0.1 pts off the line
Hit 46.1% (82-96) this season at 0–1 pts off
Where to bet the pick
California +9.5
DraftKings −108
California +9.5
Kalshi 50¢ −107
Over 56.5
DraftKings −112
Over 56.5
Kalshi 52¢ −116
Sat Oct 31, 10:30 PM
Δ1.0
Northern IllinoisatUNLV
Total no play
Under 55.5
model 54.5 · -1.0 vs line
Hit 51.6% (81-76) this season at 1–2 pts off
Spread no play
UNLV -22.5
model: UNLV by 22.9 · 0.4 pts off the line
Hit 46.1% (82-96) this season at 0–1 pts off
Where to bet the pick
UNLV -22.5
DraftKings −108
UNLV -21.5
Kalshi 51¢ −112
Under 55.5
DraftKings −118
Under 55.5
Kalshi 53¢ −121
Sat Oct 31, 8:00 PM
Δ0.9
ArmyatMemphis
Total no play
Over 58.5
model 58.9 · +0.4 vs line
Hit 52.0% (92-85) this season at 0–1 pts off
Spread no play
Army +6.0
model: Memphis by 5.1 · 0.9 pts off the line
Hit 46.1% (82-96) this season at 0–1 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Army +6.0
DraftKings −110
Army +6.5
Kalshi 53¢ −121
Over 58.5
DraftKings −118
Over 58.5
Kalshi 54¢ −126
Sat Nov 07, 7:30 PM
Δ0.9
MiamiatNotre Dame
Total no play
Under 55.5
model 55.6 · +0.1 vs line
Hit 52.0% (92-85) this season at 0–1 pts off
Spread no play
Notre Dame -3.5
model: Notre Dame by 4.4 · 0.9 pts off the line
Hit 46.1% (82-96) this season at 0–1 pts off
Sat Oct 31, 3:00 PM
Δ0.9
TempleatEast Carolina
Total no play
Under 51.5
model 50.6 · -0.9 vs line
Hit 52.0% (92-85) this season at 0–1 pts off
Spread no play
Temple +4.0
model: East Carolina by 3.9 · 0.1 pts off the line
Hit 46.1% (82-96) this season at 0–1 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Temple +4.0
DraftKings −112
Temple +4.5
Kalshi 53¢ −121
Under 51.5
DraftKings −108
Under 51.5
Kalshi 51¢ −112
Time TBD
Δ0.5
IowaatNorthwestern
Total no play
Under 42.5
model 42.0 · -0.5 vs line
Hit 52.0% (92-85) this season at 0–1 pts off
Spread no play
Iowa +2.5
model: Northwestern by 2.6 · 0.1 pts off the line
Hit 46.1% (82-96) this season at 0–1 pts off
Time TBD
Δ0.2
Michigan StateatMichigan
Total no play
Under 39.5
model 39.7 · +0.2 vs line
Hit 52.0% (92-85) this season at 0–1 pts off
Spread no play
Michigan State +14.0
model: Michigan by 13.8 · 0.2 pts off the line
Hit 46.1% (82-96) this season at 0–1 pts off
Sat Oct 31, 3:30 PM
Δ0.2
Florida InternationalatLiberty
Total no play
Under 45.5
model 45.3 · -0.2 vs line
Hit 52.0% (92-85) this season at 0–1 pts off
Spread no play
Florida International +14.0
model: Liberty by 14.2 · 0.2 pts off the line
Hit 46.1% (82-96) this season at 0–1 pts off
Where to bet the pick
Florida International +14.0
DraftKings −112
Florida International +14.5
Kalshi 55¢ −131
Under 45.5
DraftKings −115
Under 45.5
Kalshi 51¢ −112
Play means the system stakes it at the posted price; everything else is the model's lean, shown for reference. Where to bet the pick is the sportsbook price next to the same bet on Kalshi with Kalshi's fee included, written as normal odds — Kalshi's nearest listed number, so it can sit half a point off the book's.
Cover rate by model disagreement
| |Model − line| | Totals | Win% | Spreads | Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–1 pts | 92-85 | 52.0% | 82-96 | 46.1% |
| 1–2 pts | 81-76 | 51.6% | 82-64 | 56.2% |
| 2–3 pts | 55-48 | 53.4% | 72-50 | 59.0% |
| 3–5 pts | 56-52 | 51.9% | 47-50 | 48.5% |
| 5–7 pts | 17-14 | 54.8% | 6-14 | 30.0% |
| 7+ pts | 3-2 | 60.0% | 8-2 | 80.0% |
Every graded game this season, bucketed by how far the model sat from the line — each pick above shows the row it falls in. Green clears the 51.75% break-even and red falls short; a bucket stays uncoloured until it has 20 games.
Recent results
| Game | Total pick | Spread pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baylor 41
at UCF 9 2026-10-30 |
Over 49.5 win | Baylor -1.5 win | +0.00 |
| Tulane 38
at Charlotte 31 2026-10-30 |
Over 46.5 win | Tulane -8.5 loss | +0.00 |
| Kent State 10
at Sacramento State 31 2026-10-30 |
Over 46.5 loss | Sacramento State +7.5 win | +0.00 |
| Troy 24
at James Madison 21 2026-10-29 |
Under 50.5 win | Troy +19.5 win | +0.00 |
| Florida Atlantic 41
at North Texas 48 2026-10-29 |
Under 77.5 loss | Florida Atlantic +14.0 win | +0.00 |
| Jacksonville State 24
at New Mexico State 0 2026-10-28 |
Over 49.5 loss | New Mexico State +3.0 loss | +0.00 |
| Kennesaw State 44
at Middle Tennessee 28 2026-10-28 |
Over 49.5 win | Kennesaw State -1.5 win | +0.00 |
| Sam Houston 3
at Missouri State 24 2026-10-27 |
Under 51.5 win | Sam Houston +6.0 loss | +0.00 |
| Delaware 35
at Western Kentucky 21 2026-10-27 |
Over 57.5 loss | Delaware +1.5 win | +0.00 |
| Miami (OH) 28
at Central Michigan 27 2026-10-24 |
Over 40.5 win | Central Michigan +3.5 win | +0.00 |
| Iowa 10
at Minnesota 13 2026-10-24 |
Over 40.5 loss | Minnesota +7.5 win | +0.00 |
| Boston College 49
at Georgia Tech 27 2026-10-24 |
Over 50.5 win | Georgia Tech -6.0 loss | +0.00 |
Model output, not advice. College football markets are efficient and any real edge is small
and slow to prove out — weeks 1–4 especially, when little is known about this year's teams.
Bet only what you can afford to lose.