The bet you were going to make anyway, cheaper. Every price below is what it actually costs after fees,
next to what it should cost. This is not a pick sheet — on games this big, nobody's model beats the line, ours included.
How to read a card
Costs is the real price after the exchange's fee, written as normal odds. A Kalshi 56¢ contract costs about
−137 once Kalshi's fee is added, not the −127 the 56¢ suggests. Novig charges no fee pre-game; Polymarket and
Kalshi do.
Fair is what the bet should cost: the sportsbook's own line, plus how college games with a similar line have actually
finished since 2015. It pins the main number to the market and only fills in what the line implies for every other number
— so most of the time the best you can do is lose less.
Per $100 is the expected result of a $100 bet if that fair price is right. A standard −110 bet is about
−$4.50. Green means cheaper than fair by 2%+ on a quote with real size.
Buy No: on Kalshi you can take the other side of any rung. “No” on “Alabama by 10+” is
the same bet as the other team +9.5.
Thin means the quote has little size or a wide spread — it may not be there when you click.
Sat Nov 07, 7:30 PM
#1Miami@#5Notre Dame
Line Notre Dame −3.5 · Total 55.5
Line steady at Notre Dame −3.5
· total steady at 55.5
since Oct 31.
Cheapest way to bet each side
Notre Dame −3.5
Notre Dame −3.5BestDraftKings
−105costs −105
−$2.38fair −100
Miami +3.5
Miami +3.5BestDraftKings
−115costs −115
−$6.52fair −100
Over 55.5
Over 55.5BestDraftKings
−110costs −110
−$4.55fair −100
Under 55.5
Under 55.5BestDraftKings
−110costs −110
−$4.55fair −100
To win outright (Kalshi)
Notre Dame to winKalshi
59¢costs −154
+$2.64fair −165
Miami to winKalshi
46¢costs +109
−$21.03fair +165
What our model says
Agrees with the market: Notre Dame by 3.6, 55.5 points.
Nothing to add on the side or total.
On Power-4 games this season the model's spread side is 94-75,
but the closing line moved its way by -0.14 points on average over 162 games —
no measurable edge, so the record is mostly luck.
Kalshi's alt-line ladder for this game appears after the next morning run.
Sat Nov 07, 12:00 PMBig 12
#8BYU@#6Utah
Line Utah −3 · Total 48.5
Line steady at Utah −3
· total steady at 48.5
since Oct 31.
Cheapest way to bet each side
Utah −3
Utah −3BestDraftKings
−110costs −110
+$2.92fair −118
BYU +3
BYU +3BestDraftKings
−110costs −110
−$11.33fair +118
Over 48.5
Over 48.5BestDraftKings
−110costs −110
−$4.55fair −100
Under 48.5
Under 48.5BestDraftKings
−110costs −110
−$4.55fair −100
To win outright (Kalshi)
Utah to winThinKalshi
57¢costs −142
+$5.95fair −165
BYU to winThinKalshi
48¢costs +101
−$24.03fair +165
What our model says
Agrees with the market: Utah by 3.3, 47.8 points.
Nothing to add on the side or total.
On Power-4 games this season the model's spread side is 94-75,
but the closing line moved its way by -0.14 points on average over 162 games —
no measurable edge, so the record is mostly luck.
Kalshi's alt-line ladder for this game appears after the next morning run.
Sat Nov 07, 7:30 PMSEC
#3Georgia@#12Ole Miss
Line Georgia −3 · Total 56.5
Line steady at Georgia −3
· total steady at 56.5
since Oct 31.
Cheapest way to bet each side
Georgia −3
Georgia −3BestDraftKings
−115costs −115
+$0.94fair −118
Ole Miss +3
Ole Miss +3BestDraftKings
−105costs −105
−$9.49fair +118
Over 56.5
Over 56.5BestDraftKings
−110costs −110
−$4.55fair −100
Under 56.5
Under 56.5BestDraftKings
−110costs −110
−$4.55fair −100
To win outright (Kalshi)
Ole Miss to winKalshi
43¢costs +124
−$15.48fair +165
Georgia to winKalshi
62¢costs −175
−$2.27fair −165
What our model says
Agrees with the market: Georgia by 2.8, 55.4 points.
Nothing to add on the side or total.
On Power-4 games this season the model's spread side is 94-75,
but the closing line moved its way by -0.14 points on average over 162 games —
no measurable edge, so the record is mostly luck.
Kalshi's alt-line ladder for this game appears after the next morning run.
Sat Oct 31, 3:30 PM · neutral siteSEC
#17Floridavs#3Georgia
Line Georgia −12.5 · Total 56.5
Line moved Georgia −10.5 → −12.5
· total 55.5 → 56.5
since Oct 21.
Cheapest way to bet each side
Georgia −12.5
Georgia −13.5BestKalshi · buy Yes on “Georgia by 14+”
47¢costs +105
−$1.47fair +108
Georgia −11.5Kalshi · buy Yes on “Georgia by 12+”
51¢costs −112
−$3.27fair −104
Georgia −12.5DraftKings
−108costs −108
−$4.54fair +102
Florida +12.5
Florida +12.5BestDraftKings
−112costs −112
−$4.54fair −102
Florida +11.5Kalshi · buy No on “Georgia by 12+”
50¢costs −107
−$5.36fair +104
Florida +13.5Kalshi · buy No on “Georgia by 14+”
54¢costs −126
−$6.76fair −108
Over 56.5
Over 56.5BestKalshi · buy Yes on “Over 56.5”
50¢costs −107
−$2.54fair −102
Over 57.5Kalshi · buy Yes on “Over 57.5”
48¢costs +101
−$2.86fair +107
Over 55.5Kalshi · buy Yes on “Over 55.5”
53¢costs −121
−$4.20fair −110
Over 56.5DraftKings
−112costs −112
−$4.54fair −102
Under 56.5
Under 55.5BestKalshi · buy No on “Over 55.5”
48¢costs +101
−$4.41fair +110
Under 56.5DraftKings
−108costs −108
−$4.54fair +102
Under 57.5Kalshi · buy No on “Over 57.5”
53¢costs −121
−$5.61fair −107
Under 56.5Kalshi · buy No on “Over 56.5”
51¢costs −112
−$6.03fair +102
To win outright (Kalshi)
Georgia to winKalshi
80¢costs −430
−$1.37fair −400
Florida to winKalshi
21¢costs +351
−$9.78fair +400
What our model says
Agrees with the market: Georgia by 12.9, 55.6 points.
Nothing to add on the side or total.
On Power-4 games this season the model's spread side is 94-75,
but the closing line moved its way by -0.14 points on average over 162 games —
no measurable edge, so the record is mostly luck.
Alt-line menu (Kalshi spread ladder)
GeorgiaFlorida
−30.5−$0.2614¢ · costs +574
+30.5−$2.9687¢ · costs −719
−27.5−$4.6019¢ · costs +398
+27.5−$3.7483¢ · costs −525
−24.5−$0.0822¢ · costs +331
+24.5−$4.1779¢ · costs −404
−23.5+$0.6025¢ · costs +280 · thin
+23.5−$4.8576¢ · costs −340 · thin
−21.5−$1.7228¢ · costs +240
+21.5−$4.4273¢ · costs −290
−20.5−$3.2832¢ · costs +198
+20.5−$5.4570¢ · costs −251
−17.5−$2.8137¢ · costs +159
+17.5−$4.8264¢ · costs −191
−16.5−$0.9940¢ · costs +140
+16.5−$6.2861¢ · costs −168
−14.5+$1.6142¢ · costs +129
+14.5−$8.4159¢ · costs −154
−13.5−$1.4747¢ · costs +105
+13.5−$6.7654¢ · costs −126
−11.5−$3.2751¢ · costs −112
+11.5−$5.3650¢ · costs −107
−10.5−$3.5053¢ · costs −121
+10.5−$5.1848¢ · costs +101
−9.5−$1.6655¢ · costs −131
+9.5−$7.3946¢ · costs +109
−7.5−$4.1559¢ · costs −154
+7.5−$4.3042¢ · costs +129
−6.5−$5.3866¢ · costs −208
+6.5−$1.4535¢ · costs +173
−5.5−$4.0768¢ · costs −228
+5.5−$3.5833¢ · costs +189
−4.5−$4.3470¢ · costs −251
+4.5−$2.6731¢ · costs +208
−3.5−$5.2973¢ · costs −290
+3.5+$0.4828¢ · costs +240
−2.5−$3.1477¢ · costs −360
+2.5−$4.2024¢ · costs +296
−1.5−$3.0079¢ · costs −404
+1.5−$4.1222¢ · costs +331
+1.5−$2.7983¢ · costs −525
−1.5−$3.5718¢ · costs +425
+2.5−$1.3083¢ · costs −525
−2.5−$10.1218¢ · costs +425
+3.5−$1.4287¢ · costs −719 · thin
−3.5−$9.3414¢ · costs +574 · thin
+4.5−$1.2088¢ · costs −788
−4.5−$10.6413¢ · costs +625
+5.5−$0.8389¢ · costs −869
−5.5−$13.1712¢ · costs +685
+6.5−$1.9591¢ · costs −1087
−6.5−$3.9210¢ · costs +841
+7.5−$1.0393¢ · costs −1428
−7.5−$11.818¢ · costs +1074
+9.5−$0.1593¢ · costs −1428
−9.5−$21.518¢ · costs +1074
+10.5−$0.8995¢ · costs −2042
−10.5−$13.776¢ · costs +1464
+11.5−$1.3196¢ · costs −2580
−11.5−$6.415¢ · costs +1775
+13.5−$1.5997¢ · costs −3476
−13.5+$1.814¢ · costs +2243
Each row is one Kalshi contract seen from both sides: you buy Yes for one and No for the other. Fair prices here are a hypothesis
built from 2,696 past games with similar lines; we log every rung each morning and will publish how they grade.
Alt totals (Kalshi)
OverUnder
o36.5−$0.7591¢ · costs −1087
u36.5−$14.2710¢ · costs +841
o39.5−$3.0789¢ · costs −869
u39.5−$5.2813¢ · costs +625
o42.5−$3.5284¢ · costs −564
u42.5−$5.1818¢ · costs +425
o45.5−$4.0377¢ · costs −360
u45.5−$1.4524¢ · costs +296
o48.5−$2.9370¢ · costs −251
u48.5−$5.7731¢ · costs +208
o51.5−$4.5464¢ · costs −191
u51.5−$3.2737¢ · costs +159
o54.5−$4.0957¢ · costs −142
u54.5−$4.4644¢ · costs +119
o55.5−$4.2053¢ · costs −121
u55.5−$4.4148¢ · costs +101
o56.5−$2.5450¢ · costs −107
u56.5−$6.0351¢ · costs −112
o57.5−$2.8648¢ · costs +101
u57.5−$5.6153¢ · costs −121
o58.5−$1.9045¢ · costs +114
u58.5−$6.1856¢ · costs −137
o59.5−$2.5042¢ · costs +129
u59.5−$5.4559¢ · costs −154
o60.5−$2.2041¢ · costs +134
u60.5−$7.0561¢ · costs −168
o63.5−$5.6734¢ · costs +181
u63.5−$4.4368¢ · costs −228
o66.5−$5.1027¢ · costs +252 · thin
u66.5−$4.2575¢ · costs −322 · thin
o69.5+$2.1721¢ · costs +351
u69.5−$4.6480¢ · costs −430
o72.5−$2.5817¢ · costs +456 · thin
u72.5−$2.9084¢ · costs −564 · thin
o75.5−$7.2614¢ · costs +574 · thin
u75.5−$2.8288¢ · costs −788 · thin
o78.5−$3.2210¢ · costs +841
u78.5−$2.0391¢ · costs −1087
Sat Nov 07, 3:30 PMSEC
#10Alabama@#15LSU
Line LSU −4.5 · Total 52.5
Line steady at LSU −4.5
· total steady at 52.5
since Oct 31.
Cheapest way to bet each side
LSU −4.5
LSU −4.5BestDraftKings
−105costs −105
−$2.38fair −100
Alabama +4.5
Alabama +4.5BestDraftKings
−115costs −115
−$6.52fair −100
Over 52.5
Over 52.5BestDraftKings
−110costs −110
−$4.55fair −100
Under 52.5
Under 52.5BestDraftKings
−110costs −110
−$4.55fair −100
To win outright (Kalshi)
LSU to winKalshi
63¢costs −183
−$0.11fair −182
Alabama to winKalshi
41¢costs +134
−$16.98fair +182
What our model says
Agrees with the market: LSU by 4.7, 52.4 points.
Nothing to add on the side or total.
On Power-4 games this season the model's spread side is 94-75,
but the closing line moved its way by -0.14 points on average over 162 games —
no measurable edge, so the record is mostly luck.
Kalshi's alt-line ladder for this game appears after the next morning run.
Sat Nov 07, 6:15 PMSEC
#9Kentucky@#16Tennessee
Line Tennessee −5.5 · Total 50.5
Line steady at Tennessee −5.5
· total steady at 50.5
since Oct 31.
Cheapest way to bet each side
Tennessee −5.5
Tennessee −5.5BestDraftKings
−110costs −110
−$4.55fair −100
Kentucky +5.5
Kentucky +5.5BestDraftKings
−110costs −110
−$4.55fair −100
Over 50.5
Over 50.5BestDraftKings
−110costs −110
−$4.55fair −100
Under 50.5
Under 50.5BestDraftKings
−110costs −110
−$4.55fair −100
To win outright (Kalshi)
Tennessee to winThinKalshi
64¢costs −191
+$0.55fair −194
Kentucky to winThinKalshi
38¢costs +152
−$14.18fair +194
What our model says
Agrees with the market: Tennessee by 6.3, 50.5 points.
Nothing to add on the side or total.
On Power-4 games this season the model's spread side is 94-75,
but the closing line moved its way by -0.14 points on average over 162 games —
no measurable edge, so the record is mostly luck.
Kalshi's alt-line ladder for this game appears after the next morning run.
Sat Nov 07, 12:00 PMSEC
#11Texas@#23Missouri
Line Texas −3.5 · Total 49.5
Line steady at Texas −3.5
· total steady at 49.5
since Oct 31.
Cheapest way to bet each side
Texas −3.5
Texas −3.5BestDraftKings
−115costs −115
−$6.52fair −100
Missouri +3.5
Missouri +3.5BestDraftKings
−105costs −105
−$2.38fair −100
Over 49.5
Over 49.5BestDraftKings
−110costs −110
−$4.55fair −100
Under 49.5
Under 49.5BestDraftKings
−110costs −110
−$4.55fair −100
To win outright (Kalshi)
Missouri to winThinKalshi
39¢costs +146
−$7.29fair +165
Texas to winThinKalshi
66¢costs −208
−$7.80fair −165
What our model says
Agrees with the market: Texas by 3.2, 48.8 points.
Nothing to add on the side or total.
On Power-4 games this season the model's spread side is 94-75,
but the closing line moved its way by -0.14 points on average over 162 games —
no measurable edge, so the record is mostly luck.
Kalshi's alt-line ladder for this game appears after the next morning run.
Sat Oct 31, 12:00 PMBig 12
#22Arizona@#13Texas Tech
Line Texas Tech −3.5 · Total 54.5
Line moved Texas Tech −7.5 → −3.5
· total 52.5 → 54.5
since Oct 22.
A move this size usually means news — check injuries and quarterback status before betting the old number anywhere.
Cheapest way to bet each side
Texas Tech −3.5
Texas Tech −3.5BestDraftKings
−112costs −112
−$4.54fair −102
Texas Tech −4.5Kalshi · buy Yes on “Texas Tech by 5+”
49¢costs −103
−$5.63fair +109
Texas Tech −2.5Kalshi · buy Yes on “Texas Tech by 3+”
60¢costs −161
−$6.07fair −138
Texas Tech −3.5Kalshi · buy Yes on “Texas Tech by 4+”
52¢costs −116
−$6.17fair −102
Arizona +3.5
Arizona +2.5BestKalshi · buy No on “Texas Tech by 3+”
41¢costs +134
−$1.47fair +138
Arizona +3.5Kalshi · buy No on “Texas Tech by 4+”
49¢costs −103
−$2.33fair +102
Arizona +4.5Kalshi · buy No on “Texas Tech by 5+”
52¢costs −116
−$3.05fair −109
Arizona +3.5DraftKings
−108costs −108
−$4.54fair +102
Over 54.5
Over 54.5BestDraftKings
−110costs −110
−$4.55fair −100
Over 54.5Kalshi · buy Yes on “Over 54.5”
51¢costs −112
−$5.21fair −100
Over 55.5Kalshi · buy Yes on “Over 55.5”
47¢costs +105
−$5.44fair +117
Over 53.5Kalshi · buy Yes on “Over 53.5”
54¢costs −126
−$6.48fair −109
Under 54.5
Under 53.5BestKalshi · buy No on “Over 53.5”
47¢costs +105
−$1.78fair +109
Under 55.5Kalshi · buy No on “Over 55.5”
54¢costs −126
−$3.28fair −117
Under 54.5DraftKings
−110costs −110
−$4.55fair −100
Under 54.5Kalshi · buy No on “Over 54.5”
51¢costs −112
−$5.21fair −100
What our model says
Agrees with the market: Texas Tech by 4.0, 54.0 points.
Nothing to add on the side or total.
On Power-4 games this season the model's spread side is 94-75,
but the closing line moved its way by -0.14 points on average over 162 games —
no measurable edge, so the record is mostly luck.
Alt-line menu (Kalshi spread ladder)
Texas TechArizona
−27.5−$14.678¢ · costs +1074
+27.5−$0.7793¢ · costs −1428
−24.5−$7.6210¢ · costs +841
+24.5−$1.5291¢ · costs −1087
−23.5−$1.2011¢ · costs +756 · thin
+23.5−$2.4090¢ · costs −967 · thin
−21.5−$0.3813¢ · costs +625 · thin
+21.5−$2.7988¢ · costs −788 · thin
−20.5+$4.2115¢ · costs +529 · thin
+20.5−$3.9286¢ · costs −660 · thin
−17.5+$1.5619¢ · costs +398
+17.5−$4.1282¢ · costs −489
−16.5−$2.7922¢ · costs +331 · thin
+16.5−$3.3979¢ · costs −404 · thin
−14.5+$5.1122¢ · costs +331 · thin
+14.5−$5.6779¢ · costs −404 · thin
−13.5−$2.4327¢ · costs +252
+13.5−$4.0374¢ · costs −306
−11.5−$9.8431¢ · costs +208 · thin
+11.5−$2.4071¢ · costs −263 · thin
−10.5−$7.1432¢ · costs +198
+10.5−$2.3169¢ · costs −239
−9.5−$7.4836¢ · costs +166
+9.5−$2.0965¢ · costs −199
−7.5−$6.3239¢ · costs +146
+7.5−$2.7462¢ · costs −175
−6.5−$6.7745¢ · costs +114
+6.5−$2.2456¢ · costs −137
−5.5−$5.1747¢ · costs +105
+5.5−$3.5254¢ · costs −126
−4.5−$5.6349¢ · costs −103
+4.5−$3.0552¢ · costs −116
−3.5−$6.1752¢ · costs −116
+3.5−$2.3349¢ · costs −103
−2.5−$6.0760¢ · costs −161
+2.5−$1.4741¢ · costs +134
−1.5−$5.4362¢ · costs −175
+1.5−$2.1239¢ · costs +146
+1.5−$2.3465¢ · costs −199
−1.5−$7.0436¢ · costs +166
+2.5−$2.4367¢ · costs −218
−2.5−$6.9034¢ · costs +181
+3.5−$1.6973¢ · costs −290
−3.5−$8.6128¢ · costs +240
+4.5−$1.7475¢ · costs −322 · thin
−4.5−$8.5226¢ · costs +266 · thin
+5.5−$1.2076¢ · costs −340
−5.5−$10.1225¢ · costs +280
+6.5−$1.4478¢ · costs −381
−6.5−$9.4923¢ · costs +313
+7.5−$0.4882¢ · costs −489
−7.5−$13.5119¢ · costs +398
+9.5−$1.7985¢ · costs −609
−9.5−$13.0017¢ · costs +456
+10.5−$0.7686¢ · costs −660
−10.5−$13.0415¢ · costs +529
+11.5−$1.8188¢ · costs −788 · thin
−11.5−$6.7213¢ · costs +625 · thin
+13.5−$1.3489¢ · costs −869
−13.5−$9.5612¢ · costs +685
+14.5−$2.4892¢ · costs −1236 · thin
−14.5+$2.199¢ · costs +945 · thin
Each row is one Kalshi contract seen from both sides: you buy Yes for one and No for the other. Fair prices here are a hypothesis
built from 4,388 past games with similar lines; we log every rung each morning and will publish how they grade.