Today's picks
The side the model thinks is likelier on every spread and total with a line. These are leans,
not locks: across the 2021-22 to 2025-26 seasons, on games
it never trained on, the model's side hit 51.4% on spreads and
51.0% on totals, against the 52.4% a −110 bet needs.
Sun Nov 08, 12:00 PM
early season
Ionaat#13St. John's
Projected score St. John's 87 – Iona 62
Spread
3.2 pts off
Iona +27.5
Model: St. John's by 24.3
53.2% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 387 games
Total
0.6 pts off
Under 149.5
Model total 148.9
51.6% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,905 games
Sun Nov 08, 1:00 PM
early season
#12Arkansasvs#9Virginia
Projected score Virginia 80 – Arkansas 78
Skyscanner Capital Showcase · ranked matchup
Spread
0.3 pts off
Arkansas +2.5
Model: Virginia by 2.2
50.8% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,406 games
Total
2.1 pts off
Under 160.5
Model total 158.4
56.0% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 116 games
Sun Nov 08, 1:00 PM
early season
Southeast Missouri StateatSouth Carolina
Projected score South Carolina 80 – Southeast Missouri State 65
Spread
2.7 pts off
Southeast Missouri State +17.5
Model: South Carolina by 14.8
53.2% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 387 games
Total
0.4 pts off
Under 145.5
Model total 145.1
51.6% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,905 games
Sun Nov 08, 1:00 PM
early season
PrincetonatSiena
Projected score Princeton 77 – Siena 74
Spread
1.2 pts off
Princeton -1.5
Model: Princeton by 2.7
56.2% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 875 games
Total
0.4 pts off
Under 151.5
Model total 151.1
51.6% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,905 games
Sun Nov 08, 2:00 PM
early season
ButleratBoise State
Projected score Boise State 80 – Butler 76
Spread
0.8 pts off
Boise State -2.5
Model: Boise State by 3.3
50.8% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,406 games
Total
1.3 pts off
Over 154.5
Model total 155.8
51.3% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 655 games
Sun Nov 08, 2:00 PM
early season
CampbellatWestern Michigan
Projected score Western Michigan 76 – Campbell 72
Spread
0.4 pts off
Campbell +4.5
Model: Western Michigan by 4.1
50.8% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,406 games
Total
0.7 pts off
Under 148.5
Model total 147.8
51.6% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,905 games
Sun Nov 08, 2:00 PM
early season
Green BayatSt. Thomas
Projected score St. Thomas 78 – Green Bay 71
Spread
1.1 pts off
Green Bay +7.5
Model: St. Thomas by 6.4
56.2% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 875 games
Total
0.3 pts off
Under 149.5
Model total 149.2
51.6% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,905 games
Sun Nov 08, 3:00 PM
early season
Idaho StateatAir Force
Big Sky · Mountain West
Projected score Air Force 83 – Idaho State 78
Spread
0.1 pts off
Idaho State +5.5
Model: Air Force by 5.4
50.8% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,406 games
Total
1.0 pts off
Under 161.5
Model total 160.5
51.3% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 655 games
Sun Nov 08, 3:00 PM
early season
Western KentuckyatTennessee Tech
Conference USA · SoCon
Projected score Western Kentucky 84 – Tennessee Tech 81
Spread
0.4 pts off
Tennessee Tech +3.5
Model: Western Kentucky by 3.1
50.8% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,406 games
Total
on the line
Under 164.5
Model total 164.5
51.6% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,905 games
Sun Nov 08, 3:00 PM
early season
SouthernatDrake
SWAC · Missouri Valley
Projected score Drake 83 – Southern 68
Spread
0.8 pts off
Drake -14.5
Model: Drake by 15.3
50.8% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,406 games
Total
on the line
Under 151.5
Model total 151.5
51.6% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,905 games
Sun Nov 08, 4:00 PM
early season
RideratBinghamton
MAAC · America East
Projected score Binghamton 73 – Rider 65
America East-Metro Challenge
Spread
0.2 pts off
Rider +7.5
Model: Binghamton by 7.3
50.8% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,406 games
Total
0.5 pts off
Under 138.5
Model total 138.0
51.6% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,905 games
Sun Nov 08, 4:00 PM
early season
Saint Peter'satNJIT
MAAC · America East
Projected score Saint Peter's 67 – NJIT 65
America East-Metro Challenge
Spread
0.4 pts off
Saint Peter's -1.5
Model: Saint Peter's by 1.9
50.8% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,406 games
Total
0.4 pts off
Under 132.5
Model total 132.1
51.6% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,905 games
Sun Nov 08, 4:30 PM
early season
Saint Mary'svsNevada
WCC · Mountain West
Projected score Nevada 74 – Saint Mary's 72
Lake Tahoe Classic
Spread
0.3 pts off
Saint Mary's +1.5
Model: Nevada by 1.2
50.8% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,406 games
Total
0.6 pts off
Under 146.5
Model total 145.9
51.6% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,905 games
Sun Nov 08, 5:00 PM
early season
RichmondvsTemple
Atlantic 10 · American
Projected score Richmond 76 – Temple 74
neutral court
Spread
0.6 pts off
Richmond -1.5
Model: Richmond by 2.1
50.8% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,406 games
Total
1.2 pts off
Under 150.5
Model total 149.3
51.3% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 655 games
Sun Nov 08, 6:00 PM
early season
North Dakota StateatCal State Bakersfield
Summit League · Big West
Projected score North Dakota State 77 – Cal State Bakersfield 75
Spread
0.8 pts off
Cal State Bakersfield +2.5
Model: North Dakota State by 1.7
50.8% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,406 games
Total
0.6 pts off
Under 152.5
Model total 151.9
51.6% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,905 games
Sun Nov 08, 6:00 PM
early season
Norfolk StateatWilliam & Mary
MEAC · CAA
Projected score William & Mary 84 – Norfolk State 74
Spread
0.6 pts off
Norfolk State +10.5
Model: William & Mary by 9.9
50.8% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,406 games
Total
0.6 pts off
Under 158.5
Model total 157.9
51.6% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,905 games
Sun Nov 08, 7:00 PM
early season
Incarnate WordatUTEP
Southland · Mountain West
Projected score UTEP 76 – Incarnate Word 65
Spread
1.1 pts off
Incarnate Word +12.5
Model: UTEP by 11.4
56.2% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 875 games
Total
0.2 pts off
Under 141.5
Model total 141.3
51.6% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,905 games
Sun Nov 08, 8:00 PM
early season
PittsburghvsPenn State
ACC · Big Ten
Projected score Pittsburgh 78 – Penn State 75
neutral court
Spread
0.8 pts off
Pittsburgh -2.5
Model: Pittsburgh by 3.3
50.8% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,406 games
Total
0.5 pts off
Under 153.5
Model total 153.0
51.6% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,905 games
Sun Nov 08, 8:30 PM
early season
#10HoustonvsCalifornia
Big 12 · ACC
Projected score Houston 80 – California 63
Lake Tahoe Classic
Spread
2.1 pts off
California +19.5
Model: Houston by 17.4
53.2% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 387 games
Total
0.6 pts off
Under 143.5
Model total 142.9
51.6% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,905 games
Sun Nov 08, 11:00 PM
early season
#21USCvsWichita State
Big Ten · American
Projected score USC 81 – Wichita State 74
Lake Tahoe Classic
Spread
0.2 pts off
Wichita State +6.5
Model: USC by 6.3
50.8% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,406 games
Total
0.7 pts off
Under 155.5
Model total 154.8
51.6% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,905 games
Sun Nov 08, 11:00 PM
early season
UT ArlingtonatHawai'i
WAC · Mountain West
Projected score Hawai'i 78 – UT Arlington 69
Rainbow Classic
Spread
0.3 pts off
Hawai'i -8.5
Model: Hawai'i by 8.8
50.8% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,406 games
Total
0.3 pts off
Over 146.5
Model total 146.8
51.6% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,905 games
Mon Nov 09, 6:30 PM
early season
SyracusevsIndiana
ACC · Big Ten
Projected score Indiana 76 – Syracuse 72
Bad Boy Mowers Series
Spread
1.0 pts off
Syracuse +4.5
Model: Indiana by 3.5
56.2% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 875 games
Total
on the line
Under 147.5
Model total 147.5
51.6% at this gap in past games where a team had played under four · 1,905 games
Projected score is the model's own number before it is compared with the line. Pts off is how far the model sits from the line toward the pick: under a point is close to a coin flip. The percentage under each pick is how often the model's side won in past games like this one - the same stage of the season, as far from the line - on seasons it never trained on, against the closing line; a −110 bet needs 52.4%. Season openers are the model's weakest games: its ratings are last season's, and the line already knows who transferred. The amber line flags what the line has to price and a rating cannot see: tournaments and neutral courts, ranked matchups, back-to-backs. Lines are ESPN's partner book.
Record this season
Spreads
153-136
52.9% · CLV -0.02
Totals
145-144
50.2% · CLV -0.06
Last 7 days
153-136
· 145-144
spreads · totals
Every game is picked and every pick is graded. CLV is how far the line moved toward the number first published, in points.
Sat Nov 7 results
Spreads 25-22 · Totals 21-26 · 47 games, Top 25 first
Morehead Stateat#11Louisville
Louisville 107 – Morehead State 57
Spreadloss
Morehead State +36.5
Totalloss
Under 150.5
New Mexico Stateat#15Gonzaga
Gonzaga 109 – New Mexico State 68
Spreadloss
New Mexico State +29.5
Totalloss
Under 151.5
North DakotaatWinthrop
North Dakota 93 – Winthrop 90
Spreadloss
Winthrop -9.5
Totalloss
Under 159.5
North Carolina A&TatOhio
Ohio 80 – North Carolina A&T 70
Spreadwin
North Carolina A&T +12.5
Totalwin
Under 161.5
UNC WilmingtonatEast Carolina
UNC Wilmington 78 – East Carolina 75
Spreadwin
East Carolina +3.5
Totalwin
Over 149.5
Cal State FullertonatSouth Dakota
Cal State Fullerton 87 – South Dakota 85
Spreadloss
South Dakota -1.5
Totalloss
Under 167.5
ColgateatDrexel
Drexel 77 – Colgate 74
Spreadwin
Drexel -1.5
Totalloss
Under 146.5
ToledoatMarshall
Toledo 81 – Marshall 76
Spreadloss
Marshall -2.5
Totalloss
Under 156.5
VCUatMemphis
Memphis 89 – VCU 88
Spreadwin
Memphis +2.5
Totalloss
Under 159.5
North Carolina CentralatLongwood
Longwood 80 – North Carolina Central 75
Spreadloss
Longwood -12.5
Totalwin
Over 149.5
Long Beach StateatMontana State
Montana State 83 – Long Beach State 70
Spreadloss
Long Beach State +10.5
Totalwin
Over 144.5
San Diego StatevsColorado
San Diego State 77 – Colorado 66
Spreadloss
Colorado +3.5
Totalwin
Under 151.5
Show all 47 games
Long Island UniversityatLa Salle
La Salle 88 – Long Island University 80
Spreadloss
Long Island University +4.5
Totalloss
Under 150.5
MonmouthvsRhode Island
Rhode Island 84 – Monmouth 66
Spreadloss
Monmouth +6.5
Totalloss
Under 144.5
LafayetteatSaint Joseph's
Saint Joseph's 67 – Lafayette 57
Spreadwin
Lafayette +16.5
Totalwin
Under 147.5
SamfordatUNLV
UNLV 88 – Samford 79
Spreadwin
Samford +11.5
Totalloss
Under 158.5
OaklandatUC Santa Barbara
UC Santa Barbara 90 – Oakland 67
Spreadwin
UC Santa Barbara -13.5
Totalloss
Under 148.5
OmahaatUtah State
Utah State 90 – Omaha 56
Spreadwin
Utah State -29.5
Totalwin
Under 153.5
BellarmineatMiami (OH)
Miami (OH) 80 – Bellarmine 73
Spreadwin
Bellarmine +20.5
Totalwin
Under 159.5
Washington StateatHigh Point
High Point 83 – Washington State 71
Spreadloss
High Point -13.5
Totalwin
Under 156.5
SIU EdwardsvilleatLipscomb
Lipscomb 78 – SIU Edwardsville 77
Spreadwin
SIU Edwardsville +8.5
Totalloss
Under 144.5
UT MartinatIU Indianapolis
IU Indianapolis 75 – UT Martin 74
Spreadwin
IU Indianapolis +1.5
Totalloss
Over 168.5
Old DominionatBucknell
Old Dominion 82 – Bucknell 62
Spreadwin
Old Dominion -5.5
Totalwin
Over 140.5
Northern IowaatFurman
Furman 98 – Northern Iowa 83
Spreadwin
Furman -4.5
Totalwin
Over 149.5
VMIatUTSA
UTSA 70 – VMI 68
Spreadwin
VMI +5.5
Totalwin
Under 163.5
Western CarolinaatUNC Asheville
Western Carolina 83 – UNC Asheville 75
Spreadloss
UNC Asheville +3.5
Totalwin
Over 152.5
Prairie View A&MatUT Rio Grande Valley
UT Rio Grande Valley 68 – Prairie View A&M 63
Spreadloss
UT Rio Grande Valley -8.5
Totalwin
Under 149.5
Northern ArizonaatNew Mexico
New Mexico 94 – Northern Arizona 65
Spreadloss
Northern Arizona +27.5
Totalloss
Under 158.5
HamptonatGeorge Washington
George Washington 75 – Hampton 61
Spreadloss
George Washington -18.5
Totalloss
Over 147.5
Morgan StateatNiagara
Morgan State 73 – Niagara 67
Spreadwin
Morgan State +3.5
Totalwin
Under 148.5
ProvidencevsNebraska
Nebraska 67 – Providence 58
Spreadwin
Nebraska -2.5
Totalloss
Over 158.5
Northern IllinoisatDayton
Northern Illinois 81 – Dayton 76
Spreadloss
Dayton -19.5
Totalwin
Over 147.5
St. BonaventureatCanisius
St. Bonaventure 88 – Canisius 49
Spreadloss
Canisius +9.5
Totalwin
Under 149.5
Houston ChristianatWestern Illinois
Houston Christian 74 – Western Illinois 67
Spreadloss
Houston Christian -9.5
Totalwin
Over 136.5
MerceratDavidson
Davidson 88 – Mercer 76
Spreadloss
Mercer +11.5
Totalloss
Under 148.5
MarylandatGeorgetown
Georgetown 86 – Maryland 74
Spreadwin
Georgetown +3.5
Totalwin
Over 146.5
DenveratUC Riverside
UC Riverside 64 – Denver 60
Spreadwin
UC Riverside -2.5
Totalloss
Over 156.5
Bethune-CookmanatGrand Canyon
Grand Canyon 99 – Bethune-Cookman 81
Spreadwin
Bethune-Cookman +23.5
Totalloss
Under 155.5
PacificatBradley
Pacific 63 – Bradley 52
Spreadwin
Pacific +1.5
Totalloss
Over 139.5
SE LouisianaatLittle Rock
SE Louisiana 83 – Little Rock 79
Spreadwin
SE Louisiana +10.5
Totalloss
Under 145.5
Southern IndianaatEvansville
Evansville 78 – Southern Indiana 76
Spreadwin
Southern Indiana +7.5
Totalloss
Under 143.5
Northwestern StateatMurray State
Murray State 93 – Northwestern State 71
Spreadwin
Northwestern State +23.5
Totalloss
Under 155.5
Utah ValleyatWeber State
Utah Valley 101 – Weber State 93
Spreadwin
Utah Valley -7.5
Totalloss
Under 155.5
San José StateatUC Irvine
UC Irvine 91 – San José State 79
Spreadloss
San José State +8.5
Totalwin
Over 146.5
Portland StateatSeattle U
Seattle U 79 – Portland State 60
Spreadloss
Portland State +10.5
Totalloss
Over 144.5
Sacramento StateatSanta Clara
Santa Clara 83 – Sacramento State 77
Spreadwin
Sacramento State +19.5
Totalwin
Under 170.5
Fresno StateatUC San Diego
UC San Diego 81 – Fresno State 65
Spreadloss
Fresno State +10.5
Totalloss
Over 151.5
Week by week
| Week | Spreads | Totals |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 2 – Nov 8 | 153-136 | 145-144 |
How the model was picked
8 models tried · running Huber regression on spreads, Huber regression on totals
Each model was trained on every season before the one it predicted, then scored on 2021-22 to 2025-26 games it never saw. Error is how many points the projected final missed by, on average; lower is better. Side is how often its side of the line won. Of the models whose error is within one standard error of the lowest — a tie, over this many games — the board runs the one whose side won most often.
| Model | Spread error | Side | Total error | Side |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ridge regression | 8.83 | 51.3% | 13.00 | 50.6% |
| Huber regressionspreadtotal | 8.83 | 51.4% | 13.00 | 51.0% |
| Gradient boosting (sklearn) | 8.84 | 50.7% | 13.01 | 50.6% |
| XGBoost | 8.84 | 50.8% | 13.01 | 51.4% |
| Random forest | 8.84 | 50.8% | 13.00 | 51.0% |
| Neural net (MLP) | 8.86 | 50.8% | 13.02 | 50.9% |
| Blend: ridge + boosting | 8.82 | 51.1% | 13.00 | 50.7% |
| Stack: weighted mix of all | 8.83 | 51.0% | 13.00 | 50.7% |
| The line itself | 8.83 | 13.00 |
Does a bigger gap mean a likelier side? The running models' side record, by points off the line:
| Spread gap | Side | Games | Total gap | Side | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-1 pts | 50.8% | 20,150 | 0-0.5 pts | 50.4% | 12,345 |
| 1-2 pts | 52.7% | 6,478 | 0.5-1 pts | 51.3% | 8,921 |
| 2-3 pts | 52.9% | 1,300 | 1-2 pts | 51.6% | 6,219 |
| 3+ pts | 58.3% | 278 | 2+ pts | 53.0% | 843 |
Re-run every Tuesday; last run 2026-11-03.
Model output, not advice. College basketball lines are softer than the NFL's on small-conference
games and just as sharp on the ones everyone watches, and a pick on every game means a lot of
near coin flips. At standard −110 pricing a 52% hit rate still loses money. Bet only what
you can afford to lose.